Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Politics•US Politics•2024 US Presidential Election
293
504
Ṁ265
2025
1.1%
chance
resolving Jan 20, 2025
Get Ṁ200 play money

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21 Comments
205 Holders
939 Trades
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bought Ṁ10 of NO

fk when you have no and buy 100$ worth of yes it actually sells the no automatically

@DeanValentine no actually I'm just retarded

predicts NO

@DeanValentine Well it does do that. 1 NO share plus 1 YES share always equals M$1, so there'd be no reason someone would want to hold both. If you buy one type of share while holding the other, they'll cancel out and return you mana.

bought Ṁ10 of YES
(betting on rugpull, not Dwayne Johnson winning)
predicts NO
I created a derivative market: https://manifold.markets/Yusef/will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us "Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?"
predicts NO
@M you mean https://manifold.markets/M/will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo-637c1bad64bd
predicts NO
@JiSK ops, thanks for providing the correct link!
sold Ṁ50 of NO
Based on the creator’s bio and other information, pretty worried they’re not going to resolve this right. Obviously Dwayne Johnson won’t win.
sold Ṁ3,037 of NO
Not selling because I think this has even 1% chance of happening, I just needed the liquidity for things that had higher rate of return due to resolving sooner. Anyone who isn't already 20 NO in this market can get "free" money by buying that with their loan, presuming good resolution. It's just two years out.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
* "more than 5%" should read "more like 5%"
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Can you explain why you think it's more than 5% that The Rock will smell what the White House chef is cooking? I made this market as a test of the resilience of play-money prediction markets, because I personally can't understand why anyone would give credence to them....
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I think the correct odds are closer to 5% than 15%. But definitely higher than 1%.
sold Ṁ44 of NO
I created https://manifold.markets/M/will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo to ask is this market going to be resolved correctly
bought Ṁ20 of NO
The real uncertainty here is on this market resolving correctly.
bought Ṁ500 of YES
fails
bought Ṁ1 of YES
heads
bought Ṁ100 of NO
My god, how is this at 19% now? Buying some NO that I can sell if needed once it gets back down to like 1%.
bought Ṁ142 of NO
Maybe someone using it to transfer money between accounts? Or there is a derivative market I don't see? Or someone YOLOing M$ 1717?
bought Ṁ20 of NO
@Blume: I'd expect it's because of the new loans feature?
bought Ṁ60 of NO
Why is this market active all of a sudden?

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