Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
resolving Jan 20, 2025
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DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentinebought Ṁ10 of NO

fk when you have no and buy 100$ worth of yes it actually sells the no automatically

DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentine

@DeanValentine no actually I'm just retarded

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 5%

@DeanValentine Well it does do that. 1 NO share plus 1 YES share always equals M$1, so there'd be no reason someone would want to hold both. If you buy one type of share while holding the other, they'll cancel out and return you mana.

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ10 of YES(betting on rugpull, not Dwayne Johnson winning)
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requestedis predicting NO at 3% I created a derivative market: https://manifold.markets/Yusef/will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us "Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?"
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requestedis predicting NO at 3% @JiSK ops, thanks for providing the correct link!
Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ50 of NOBased on the creator’s bio and other information, pretty worried they’re not going to resolve this right. Obviously Dwayne Johnson won’t win.
jbeshir avatar
John Beshirsold Ṁ3,037 of NONot selling because I think this has even 1% chance of happening, I just needed the liquidity for things that had higher rate of return due to resolving sooner. Anyone who isn't already 20 NO in this market can get "free" money by buying that with their loan, presuming good resolution. It's just two years out.
Mosiah avatar
Mosiahbought Ṁ1 of NO* "more than 5%" should read "more like 5%"
Mosiah avatar
Mosiahbought Ṁ1 of YESCan you explain why you think it's more than 5% that The Rock will smell what the White House chef is cooking? I made this market as a test of the resilience of play-money prediction markets, because I personally can't understand why anyone would give credence to them....
AlexPower avatar
Alex Powerbought Ṁ20 of NOI think the correct odds are closer to 5% than 15%. But definitely higher than 1%.
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requestedsold Ṁ44 of NOI created https://manifold.markets/M/will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo to ask is this market going to be resolved correctly
Normal_Anomaly avatar
NormalAnomalybought Ṁ20 of NOThe real uncertainty here is on this market resolving correctly.
Spindle avatar
Spindlebought Ṁ500 of YESfails
Spindle avatar
Spindlebought Ṁ1 of YESheads
Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ100 of NOMy god, how is this at 19% now? Buying some NO that I can sell if needed once it gets back down to like 1%.
Lorenzo avatar
Lorenzobought Ṁ142 of NOMaybe someone using it to transfer money between accounts? Or there is a derivative market I don't see? Or someone YOLOing M$ 1717?
LeonardoTaglialegne avatar
Leonardo Taglialegne (minbought Ṁ20 of NO@Blume: I'd expect it's because of the new loans feature?
MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blumebought Ṁ60 of NOWhy is this market active all of a sudden?