Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Manifold Markets

2025

278

Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

3%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

resolving Jan 20, 2025

2024 US Presidential Election

Presidential Politics

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Dean Valentinebought Ṁ10 of NO

fk when you have no and buy 100$ worth of yes it actually sells the no automatically

@DeanValentine no actually I'm just retarded

Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 5%

@DeanValentine Well it does do that. 1 NO share plus 1 YES share always equals M$1, so there'd be no reason someone would want to hold both. If you buy one type of share while holding the other, they'll cancel out and return you mana.

Confluxbought Ṁ10 of YES(betting on rugpull, not Dwayne Johnson winning)

Account deletion requestedis predicting NO at 3% I created a derivative market: https://manifold.markets/Yusef/will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us "Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?"

JiSKis predicting NO at 3% @M you mean https://manifold.markets/M/will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo-637c1bad64bd

Account deletion requestedis predicting NO at 3% @JiSK ops, thanks for providing the correct link!

Confluxsold Ṁ50 of NOBased on the creator’s bio and other information, pretty worried they’re not going to resolve this right. Obviously Dwayne Johnson won’t win.

John Beshirsold Ṁ3,037 of NONot selling because I think this has even 1% chance of happening, I just needed the liquidity for things that had higher rate of return due to resolving sooner. Anyone who isn't already 20 NO in this market can get "free" money by buying that with their loan, presuming good resolution. It's just two years out.

Mosiahbought Ṁ1 of NO* "more than 5%" should read "more like 5%"

Mosiahbought Ṁ1 of YESCan you explain why you think it's more than 5% that The Rock will smell what the White House chef is cooking? I made this market as a test of the resilience of play-money prediction markets, because I personally can't understand why anyone would give credence to them....

Alex Powerbought Ṁ20 of NOI think the correct odds are closer to 5% than 15%. But definitely higher than 1%.

Account deletion requestedsold Ṁ44 of NOI created https://manifold.markets/M/will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo to ask is this market going to be resolved correctly

NormalAnomalybought Ṁ20 of NOThe real uncertainty here is on this market resolving correctly.

Spindlebought Ṁ500 of YESfails

Spindlebought Ṁ1 of YESheads

Confluxbought Ṁ100 of NOMy god, how is this at 19% now? Buying some NO that I can sell if needed once it gets back down to like 1%.

Lorenzobought Ṁ142 of NOMaybe someone using it to transfer money between accounts? Or there is a derivative market I don't see? Or someone YOLOing M$ 1717?

Leonardo Taglialegne (minbought Ṁ20 of NO@Blume: I'd expect it's because of the new loans feature?

Mike Blumebought Ṁ60 of NOWhy is this market active all of a sudden?

dp bought Ṁ100 NO from 4% to 3%

Stan Pinsent sold Ṁ4 YES from 5% to 4%

Haws sold Ṁ298 NO from 2% to 5%

Ashley Davies bought Ṁ50 NO at 2%

Haws bought Ṁ100 NO from 3% to 2%

Matto442 sold Ṁ25 NO at 3%

Stan Pinsent bought Ṁ3 YES from 2% to 3%

Haws bought Ṁ100 NO from 3% to 2%

Haws bought Ṁ100 NO from 4% to 3%

Mick Bransfield sold Ṁ19 NO from 3% to 4%

Paraduck bought Ṁ10 NO from 4% to 3%

Paraduck bought Ṁ10 NO at 4%

Indrek Romet bought Ṁ30 NO at 4%

Jonathan Mann sold Ṁ20 NO at 4%

Reynolds bought Ṁ10 NO at 4%

Matto442 bought Ṁ25 NO at 4%

Ryan Wismer sold Ṁ20 NO at 4%

Bionic created limit order for Ṁ200 NO at 6%

Bionic created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 9%

Bionic sold Ṁ5 YES from 6% to 4%

Sanshray bought Ṁ7 YES from 4% to 6%

Aht sold Ṁ10 NO at 4%

Stan Pinsent bought Ṁ10 YES from 1.9% to 4%

AlphaJaw bought Ṁ20 NO from 2.0% to 1.9%

footgun sold Ṁ10 NO at 2.0%

footgun bought Ṁ10 NO at 2.0%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 2.0%

Carson Gale bought Ṁ100 NO from 3% to 2%

Mick Bransfield bought Ṁ10 NO at 3%

Joseph Noonan sold Ṁ20 NO at 3%

Jules Tapin bought Ṁ10 YES from 1.3% to 3%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 1.3%

Unconditional Probability bought Ṁ127 NO from 1.7% to 1.4%

Bionic filled limit order Ṁ47/Ṁ1,000 NO at 6% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 1.7%

Jack bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 3% to 2.0%

Daniel Eth sold Ṁ21 NO at 3%

JiSK sold Ṁ20 NO at 3%

DFWolves bought Ṁ10 NO at 3%

Steven bought Ṁ200 NO from 6% to 3%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ40/Ṁ100 NO at 6% (cancelled)

Kevin Rosentrater bought Ṁ10 YES from 3% to 7%

JiSK bought Ṁ21 NO from 4% to 3%

Mick Bransfield bought Ṁ10 NO at 4%

Harvey Powers bought Ṁ10 NO at 4%

Cytokine bought Ṁ10 NO at 4%

Alexander Pasch bought Ṁ100 NO from 6% to 4%

Ronny Fernandez sold Ṁ10 NO at 6%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ10 NO at 6%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ38/Ṁ100 NO at 6% (cancelled)

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