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What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone?
Plus
22
แน26k2031
1D
1W
1M
ALL
3%
Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)
4%
Resolves No at end of 2024
10%
Resolves No at end of 2025
14%
Resolves No at end of 2026
15%
Resolves No at end of 2027
18%
Resolves No at end of 2030
These markets resolve No on popular market resolution dates, so the percentage of these markets show the opportunity cost of money for markets resolving on those dates.
There are existing markets for this already, but they were created while Manifold was giving loans for long term markets, which caused interest rates to be much lower. And there is no incentive to correct them by buying Yes unless you think other traders will need to liquidate their positions to free up capital, so they do not reflect the current risk-free interest rate.
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