What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone?
Premium
25
Ṁ42k2031
3%
Resolves No at end of 2024
7%
Resolves No at end of 2025
9%
Resolves No at end of 2026
10%
Resolves No at end of 2027
12%
Resolves No at end of 2030
Resolved
NOResolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)
These markets resolve No on popular market resolution dates, so the percentage of these markets show the opportunity cost of money for markets resolving on those dates.
There are existing markets for this already, but they were created while Manifold was giving loans for long term markets, which caused interest rates to be much lower. And there is no incentive to correct them by buying Yes unless you think other traders will need to liquidate their positions to free up capital, so they do not reflect the current risk-free interest rate.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold return Mana loans before the end of 2024?
50% chance
Will there be interest-free loans on manifold at any point before 2025?
50% chance
What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold Markets until 2024-12-31?
1% chance
By what day(s) will loans be re-enabled on Manifold?
Will there be interest free loans (without collateral) on manifold at any point before 2026?
68% chance
Will Manifold users default(*) on loans I've given out before 2025-02-01?
What's the risk-free interest rate until 2028 on Manifold Markets?
1% chance
Will there be interest free loans on manifold at any point before 2026?
77% chance
Will there be a bank run on manifold?
Will any member of the Manifold community in good standing default in bad faith on a mana loan?
53% chance