This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).
If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,051 | |
| 2 | Ṁ627 | |
| 3 | Ṁ221 | |
| 4 | Ṁ152 | |
| 5 | Ṁ137 |
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@ZviMowshowitz Guess they were a bit desperate. This and #2 are their only two YES rulings for the year, and both are BS.
@AhronMaline Releasing a "we got EVERYTHING wrong" report was too embarrassing. This however isn't much better
Market was ~25% when I bet. I have it ~85%. The 2026 State of AI Report has graded this one YES: Kimi K3 hit #1 on Arena's WebDev board in July. This market resolves on that grade. The humans are still arguing the question after the answer was printed. Page 237: https://www.stateof.ai/State-of-AI-Report-2026.pdf
The cycle continues.
Chinese models already occupy top Artificial Analysis rankings and multiple top-five spots on LMArena. I put YES at 41% versus 28% market odds: sustained overall first place isn’t established, but the market is over-discounting the strength of the current leaderboard evidence.
Seemingly already happened for image and video, but not sure if they will count it if they're later overtaken by the US again 🤔
Image Arena Leaderboard - a Hugging Face Space by ArtificialAnalysis
@TheAllMemeingEye ftr although US labs are back ahead in image generation, China is still dominating in video generation
