SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
32
1kṀ2159Dec 31
42%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).
If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Seemingly already happened for image and video, but not sure if they will count it if they're later overtaken by the US again 🤔
Image Arena Leaderboard - a Hugging Face Space by ArtificialAnalysis
People are also trading
Related questions
SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
17% chance
Which AI lab will have the highest Sudoku-Bench score by March 1, 2026?
Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?
90% chance
The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026
47% chance
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2030?
Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?
Will Inflection AI Reach Major Lab Status?
15% chance
Will any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
9% chance
Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?
12% chance
Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
56% chance