SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
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1káš17062026
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This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).
If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Seemingly already happened for image and video, but not sure if they will count it if they're later overtaken by the US again đ¤
Image Arena Leaderboard - a Hugging Face Space by ArtificialAnalysis
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