Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?
➕
Plus
87
Ṁ11k
2029
92%
chance

Resolves yes if xAI is commonly perceived as being in the same tier as OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic for any six month period.

Inherently subjective, but factors to be considered are: funding, technical breakthroughs, new foundation models, mainstream products, mentions alongside other top labs in media, and its CEO's presence alongside other major lab CEOs at major meetings with e.g. world leaders, plus anything else that seems pertinent.

Resolves no if the criteria are never met, or if they're met, but xAI goes bust or gets absorbed by a pre-existing top lab before six months have elapsed. If xAI gets bought by a then-not-major lab/player (e.g. Apple), the market resolves yes if the criteria have otherwise been met and six months elapse. I will give notice and hear debate as to when the six-month clock should start running and require some affirmative negative update to stop.

I won't trade in this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ500 YES

and raised $6 Billion https://x.ai/blog/series-b

bought Ṁ50 YES

If xAI is absorbed by Tesla would you consider that to be bought by a preexisting top AI lab?

Would you consider 01.AI (Yi) to be a Major Lab since they published a "almost" front-tier model Yi-Large?

lol, frontier != front tier ❤

bought Ṁ10 NO

Website says their mission is "understanding the universe"
If this is true and they have cracked people they might actually pull through

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