SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration | Manifold

SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration

6

1kṀ760

2027

27%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration.

If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.

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Related questions

SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

What will happen to OpenAI next year?

Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?

Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

will DeepSeek become a closed AI lab by EOY?

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