SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
23
1kṀ18822027
19%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration.
If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
35% chance
What will happen to OpenAI next year?
Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
18% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
31% chance
Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
27% chance
8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications
95% chance
will DeepSeek become a closed AI lab by EOY?
17% chance
SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
54% chance
Does open sourcing LLMs/AI models (a la meta) increase risk of AI catastrophe?
61% chance
Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
71% chance