Will open-source AI win? (through 2028) | Manifold

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

57

1kṀ5749

2029

34%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)

PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES

Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

Sort by:

That's a very vague criteria. Open source definitely has better public perception but weaker models and it's likely to stay that way.

predictedYES

predictedYES

https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

People are also trading

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

Related questions

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy