In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)
PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES
Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
More related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
37% chance
Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
50% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
23% chance
Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
62% chance
Will Open Source LLM's Beat Out The Vast Majority of Google and/or OpenAI/Microsofts's Moat by end of June 2024?
31% chance
Which (if any) "big tech" companies will "open source" their AI models in 2024?
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
55% chance
Will general consensus be that OpenAI is no longer the lead AI company by end of 2024?
34% chance
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
32% chance
By 2028, will I think OpenAI has been net-good for the world?
35% chance