In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)
PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES
Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
35% chance
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
75% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?
Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
43% chance
Which (if any) "big tech" companies will "open source" their AI models in 2024?
Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)
15% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
40% chance
Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
47% chance
By 2028, will I think OpenAI has been net-good for the world?
39% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
35% chance
Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)
15% chance
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
75% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
40% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?
Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
47% chance
Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
43% chance
By 2028, will I think OpenAI has been net-good for the world?
39% chance
Which (if any) "big tech" companies will "open source" their AI models in 2024?
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?