Will open-source AI win? (through 2028) | Manifold

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

55

1kṀ4520

2029

49%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)

PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES

Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.

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That's a very vague criteria. Open source definitely has better public perception but weaker models and it's likely to stay that way.

predictedYES

predictedYES

https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

People are also trading

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Will OpenAI still be considered one of the top players in AI by end of 2025

Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Will Open AI ‘collapse’ in the next two years?

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?

Will OpenAI lose the lead in AI continually for a period of at least 6 months during the next three years?

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Related questions

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Will OpenAI still be considered one of the top players in AI by end of 2025

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?

Will Open AI ‘collapse’ in the next two years?

Will OpenAI lose the lead in AI continually for a period of at least 6 months during the next three years?

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

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