Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Gigacasting

closes 2029

42%

chance

ALL

In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)

PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES

Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Gigacastingpredicts YES

https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither

Manifold in the WildBot

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 NO at 42% (cancelled) 🤖

David McSharry sold Ṁ50 NO from 40% to 43%

PA bought Ṁ15 NO from 41% to 40%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ45/Ṁ100 NO at 41% (cancelled) 🤖

TruthGPT bought Ṁ50 YES from 40% to 44%

Flan 🍮 bought Ṁ10 YES from 39% to 40%

David McSharry bought Ṁ15 NO at 39%

Armaan Sethi bought Ṁ10 NO from 40% to 39%

Davis Brown bought Ṁ35 NO from 42% to 40%

David McSharry bought Ṁ20 NO from 44% to 42%

David McSharry bought Ṁ10 YES from 43% to 44%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 36% 🤖

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 62% 🤖

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 53% 🤖

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 27% 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ100 NO at 43% (cancelled)

Louis bought Ṁ72 YES from 38% to 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ34/Ṁ100 YES at 38% (cancelled)

Kongo Landwalker sold Ṁ111 YES from 45% to 35%

parker friedland bought Ṁ10 YES from 44% to 45%

Michael Wheatley bought Ṁ8 NO at 44% 🎁

Manifold bought Ṁ16 YES at 44% 🎁

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ19 NO at 44%

Louis bought Ṁ62 YES from 39% to 46%

CuriousNoob bought Ṁ10 NO from 40% to 39%

Cpeter bought Ṁ10 YES from 39% to 40%

Bruno Ursino bought Ṁ9 YES from 38% to 39%

Savio Mak bought Ṁ5 NO at 38%

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ30 NO from 41% to 38%

Lambdadelta bought Ṁ55 NO from 47% to 41%

Eliener Unowkysy bought Ṁ1 NO at 47%

Jechto bought Ṁ50 YES from 39% to 47%

Robin Gries bought Ṁ10 YES from 38% to 39%

drevv bought Ṁ10 NO from 39% to 38%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ5 YES from 38% to 39%

David McSharry bought Ṁ30 NO from 41% to 38%

Emilio bought Ṁ10 YES from 40% to 41%

Adrian bought Ṁ50 NO from 47% to 40%

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fredrick slick sold Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 24%

fredrick slick bought Ṁ10 NO from 24% to 23%

Dmytro Bulatov bought Ṁ25 NO from 26% to 24%

Eliener Unowkysy bought Ṁ2 YES from 25% to 26%

Adele Lopez bought Ṁ10 NO from 26% to 25%

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