Will open-source AI win? (through 2028) | Manifold

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

57

1kṀ5749

2029

34%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)

PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES

Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.

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That's a very vague criteria. Open source definitely has better public perception but weaker models and it's likely to stay that way.

predictedYES

predictedYES

https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

People are also trading

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Will Open AI hit 750+ Billion Dollar Evaluation Before March 31st, 2026?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will Open AI ‘collapse’ in the next two years?

Will OpenAI lose the lead in AI continually for a period of at least 6 months during the next three years?

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

Related questions

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Will Open AI hit 750+ Billion Dollar Evaluation Before March 31st, 2026?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will Open AI ‘collapse’ in the next two years?

Will OpenAI lose the lead in AI continually for a period of at least 6 months during the next three years?

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

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