PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION BEFORE BETTING 

• This market will resolve YES if there is a (non-shorts) winner at the 96th Academy Awards who Manifold gave less than 10% chance to win the Oscar.

  • A.K.A. a SURPRISING UPSET.

• The source for the probability of the Oscar nominees is defined by this spreadsheet (<10% is highlighted in orange).

• I repeat: this market does not refer to any probability that you might find on Manifold, it is solely defined by the linked spreadsheet (computed right before market creation).

• This does not include the three "shorts" categories: only the 20 feature film categories are eligible.

Further details:

• This spreadsheet reflects my best good faith attempt to compute the "average probability for each winner according to Manifold".

• Rough process:

  • (1) Gather many markets from Manifold (~70 or so).

  • (2) Take the mean for each category/nominee.

  • (3) Normalize so the probabilities sum to 1.

• Still, there is no single correct way to do this (e.g. which markets to include), some of the Manifold probabilities are bound to be a bit wonky, and probabilities might shift in the final few days, so bear all that in mind before betting.

• If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask!