Which will win the 2024 Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film?
135
18k
resolved Mar 10
Resolved
YES
The Boy and the Heron
Resolved
NO
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Resolved
NO
Elemental
Resolved
NO
Ninoma
Resolved
NO
Robot Dreams

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That's an upset. Just before the winner was announced, Spiderverse was well ahead. 73% against approx 42% for Boy and the Heron.

Tomorrow night by 10pm ET, we'll know the answer.

Not many days left to bet on this one...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4CFWTYFRlw

netflix putting nimona on yt maybe as part of their oscar campaign?

So that participants can bet against certain choices and for others. It's that not generally how multiple choice questions are set up?

@mkalbert @mattyb

@mkalbert The idea is that there are different types of multiple choice markers. Dependent and independent. Typically this would be dependent, as there can only be one winner (so the probabilities sum to 1). This is set to independent, so while in theory the probabilities should sum to 1, in practice they can be anything.

Typically this sort of market would be dependent. But in practice I don’t see why there’s any serious problem with having it structured this way (it’s like having 5 more individual markets for a winner). It’s just a bit Less efficient

@Ziddletwix I.e. if you think this setup was a mistake, you can NA it and that seems fine, not many have traded it. If you don’t mind the setup, I don’t think there’s any serious problem with it

why is this a multi market?