How accurate will Variety’s Oscar predictions be?
5
160Ṁ248
Mar 17
19%
chance

Amazingly, Variety has published a full list of Oscar predictions 12 months out! Absolutely insane!! How accurate will they be (resolves to percent)?

I am going to be weighting each correct guess as +3 points, and each correct nomination as +1. Each category has a total of 8 winnable points, but for Best Picture which has (up to 10 nominees and thus) 13 winnable points. So if they get the Best Actor right, and 3 of the nominees correct (including the winner), that would be 6/8 (75%) for the category. What % of the total points will Variety win?

*** denotes a picked winner

Best Picture:

  • “Bird” (No U.S. Distribution) 
    Lee Groombridge, Juliette Howell, Tessa Ross 

  • “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) ***
    Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer 

  • “Conclave” (Focus Features)  
    Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross 

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) 
    Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve 

  • “The End” (Neon) 
    Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen 

  • “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 
    Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe, Kasia Malipan 

  • “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) 
    Michael Bederman, Francis Ford Coppola 

  • “The Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) 
    Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, David Levine 

  • “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 
    Todd Black, Denzel Washington 

  • “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) 
    Jeff Hermann

Director:

  • Andrea Arnold — “Bird” (No U.S. Distribution) 

  • Francis Ford Coppola — “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) 

  • Steve McQueen — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) ***

  • Joshua Oppenheimer — “The End” (Neon) 

  • Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) 

Actor

  • Daniel Craig — “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) 

  • Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24) 

  • Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features) ***

  • Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24) 

  • John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 

Actress

  • Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 

  • Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) 

  • Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24) 

  • Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (TBA) ***

  • Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios) 

Supporting Actor

  • Willem Dafoe — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 

  • Harris Dickinson — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 

  • Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) ***

  • Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 

  • Stanley Tucci — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 

Supporting Actress

  • Joan Chen — “Dìdi” (Focus Features) 

  • Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 

  • Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “The Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) ***

  • Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 

  • Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 

Original Screenplay

  • “Bird” (No U.S. Distribution) — Andrea Arnold 

  • “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Steve McQueen ***

  • “The End” (Neon) — Rasmus Heisterberg, Joshua Oppenheimer 

  • “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) — Efthimis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos 

  • “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg 

Adapted Screenplay

  • “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Peter Straughan 

  • “The Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) — RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes ***

  • “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington 

  • “Sing Sing” (A24) — Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John Divine G Whitfield 

  • “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Chris Sanders 

Animated Feature

  • “Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 

  • “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” (Warner Bros.) 

  • “The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol” (Sony Pictures Classics) 

  • “Ultraman: Rising” (Netflix) 

  • “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***

Production Design

  • “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock ***

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos 

  • “Gladiator 2” (Paramount Pictures) — Arthur Max, Elli Griff 

  • “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) — Beth Mickle, Bradley Rubin, Lisa K. Sessions 

  • “Nosferatu” (Focus Features) — Craig Lathrop 

Cinematography

  • “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Yorick Le Saux 

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Greig Fraser ***

  • “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) — Edward Lachmann 

  • “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) –Mihai Malaimaire Jr. 

  • “Parthenope” (No U.S. Distribution) — Daria D’Antonio 

Costume Design

  • “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) — Colleen Atwood 

  • “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Jacqueline Durran 

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Jacqueline West ***

  • “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) — Milena Canonero 

  • “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Francine Jamison-Tanchuck 

Film Editing

  • “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Peter Sciberras ***

  • “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Nick Emerson 

  • “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) — Shane Reid 

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Joe Walker 

  • “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Leslie Jones 

Makeup and Hairstyling

  • “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***

  • “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 

  • “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 

  • “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)  


Sound

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***

  • “The End” (Neon) 

  • “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 

  • “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution)  

  • “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Visual Effects

  • “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) 

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***

  • “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios) 

  • “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) 

  • “Tuesday” (A24) 

Original Score

  • “Flint Strong” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Tamar-kali 

  • “IF” (Paramount Pictures) — Michael Giacchino 

  • “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) — Thomas Newman ***

  • “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Kris Bowers 

  • “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Amelia Warner

Original Song

  • “Possible song” from “Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F” (Netflix) 

  • “Possible song” from “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 

  • “Possible song” from “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) 

  • “Possible song” from “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) 

  • “Possible song” from “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) ***

Documentary Feature

  • “Daughters” (Netflix) — dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae 

  • “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) — dir. Morgan Neville 

  • “Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) — dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie 

  • “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”  (Warner Bros.) — Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui ***

  • “Will & Harper” (Netflix) — dir. Josh Greenbaum 

International Feature

  • “Brief History of a Family” (China) — dir. Jianjie Lin 

  • “Emmanuelle” (France) — dir. Audrey Diwan 

  • “Crossing” (Georgia) — dir. Levan Akin 

  • “Pedro Páramo” (Mexico) — dir. Rodrigo Prieto ***

  • “Reinas” (Spain) — dir. Klaudia Reynicke-Candeloro 

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@traders if anyone wants to write out the calculations to resolve this they can take whatever liquidity is there + I will send them 100M for the trouble! Otherwise I’ll have to calculate this myself lol

@Ziddletwix Grok says 19%


Best Picture
Predicted: "Bird", "Blitz" (winner), "Conclave", "Dune: Part Two", "The End", "Kinds of Kindness", "Megalopolis", "The Nickel Boys", "The Piano Lesson", "The Wild Robot"
Actual: "Anora" (winner), "The Brutalist", "A Complete Unknown", "Conclave", "Dune: Part Two", "Emilia Pérez", "I’m Still Here", "Nickel Boys", "The Substance", "Wicked"
Score: Matches: "Conclave", "Dune: Part Two", "Nickel Boys" (3). Winner wrong (0). 3/13


Director
Predicted: Arnold ("Bird"), Coppola ("Megalopolis"), McQueen ("Blitz") (winner), Oppenheimer ("The End"), Villeneuve ("Dune: Part Two")
Actual: Baker ("Anora") (winner), Corbet ("The Brutalist"), Mangold ("A Complete Unknown"), Audiard ("Emilia Pérez"), Fargeat ("The Substance")
Score: No matches. 0/8


Actor
Predicted: Craig ("Queer"), Domingo ("Sing Sing"), Fiennes ("Conclave") (winner), Garfield ("We Live in Time"), Washington ("The Piano Lesson")
Actual: Brody ("The Brutalist") (winner), Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown"), Domingo ("Sing Sing"), Fiennes ("Conclave"), Stan ("The Apprentice")
Score: Matches: "Domingo", "Fiennes" (2). Winner wrong (0). 2/8


Actress
Predicted: Gaga ("Joker: Folie à Deux"), Jean-Baptiste ("Hard Truths"), Pugh ("We Live in Time"), Ronan ("The Outrun") (winner), Zendaya ("Challengers")
Actual: Madison ("Anora") (winner), Erivo ("Wicked"), Gascón ("Emilia Pérez"), Moore ("The Substance"), Torres ("I’m Still Here")
Score: No matches. 0/8


Supporting Actor
Predicted: Dafoe ("Kinds of Kindness"), Dickinson ("Blitz"), Jackson ("The Piano Lesson") (winner), Plemons ("Kinds of Kindness"), Tucci ("Conclave")
Actual: Culkin ("A Real Pain") (winner), Borisov ("Anora"), Norton ("A Complete Unknown"), Pearce ("The Brutalist"), Strong ("The Apprentice")
Score: No matches. 0/8


Supporting Actress
Predicted: Chen ("Dìdi"), Deadwyler ("The Piano Lesson"), Ellis-Taylor ("The Nickel Boys") (winner), Ronan ("Blitz"), Rossellini ("Conclave")
Actual: Saldaña ("Emilia Pérez") (winner), Barbaro ("A Complete Unknown"), Grande ("Wicked"), Jones ("The Brutalist"), Rossellini ("Conclave")
Score: Match: "Rossellini" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8


Original Screenplay
Predicted: "Bird", "Blitz" (winner), "The End", "Kinds of Kindness", "A Real Pain"
Actual: "Anora" (winner), "The Brutalist", "A Real Pain", "September 5", "The Substance"
Score: Match: "A Real Pain" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8


Adapted Screenplay
Predicted: "Conclave", "The Nickel Boys" (winner), "The Piano Lesson", "Sing Sing", "The Wild Robot"
Actual: "Conclave" (winner), "A Complete Unknown", "Emilia Pérez", "Nickel Boys", "Sing Sing"
Score: Matches: "Conclave", "Nickel Boys", "Sing Sing" (3). Winner wrong (0). 3/8


Animated Feature
Predicted: "Inside Out 2", "The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim", "The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol", "Ultraman: Rising", "The Wild Robot" (winner)
Actual: "Flow" (winner), "Inside Out 2", "Memoir of a Snail", "Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl", "The Wild Robot"
Score: Matches: "Inside Out 2", "The Wild Robot" (2). Winner wrong (0). 2/8


Production Design
Predicted: "Blitz" (winner), "Dune: Part Two", "Gladiator 2", "Megalopolis", "Nosferatu"
Actual: "Wicked" (winner), "The Brutalist", "Conclave", "Dune: Part Two", "Nosferatu"
Score: Matches: "Dune: Part Two", "Nosferatu" (2). Winner wrong (0). 2/8


Cinematography
Predicted: "Blitz", "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "Maria", "Megalopolis", "Parthenope"
Actual: Crawley ("The Brutalist") (winner), Fraser ("Dune: Part Two"), Guilhaume ("Emilia Pérez"), Lachman ("Maria"), Blaschke ("Nosferatu")
Score: Matches: "Dune: Part Two", "Maria" (2). Winner wrong (0). 2/8


Costume Design
Predicted: "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice", "Blitz", "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "Megalopolis", "The Piano Lesson"
Actual: "Wicked" (winner), "A Complete Unknown", "Conclave", "Gladiator II", "Nosferatu"
Score: No matches. 0/8


Film Editing
Predicted: "Blitz" (winner), "Conclave", "Deadpool & Wolverine", "Dune: Part Two", "The Piano Lesson"
Actual: "Anora" (winner), "The Brutalist", "Conclave", "Emilia Pérez", "Wicked"
Score: Match: "Conclave" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8


Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted: "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice", "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "Joker: Folie à Deux", "Kinds of Kindness", "Nosferatu"
Actual: "The Substance" (winner), "A Different Man", "Emilia Pérez", "Nosferatu", "Wicked"
Score: Match: "Nosferatu" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8


Sound
Predicted: "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "The End", "Joker: Folie à Deux", "Megalopolis", "The Wild Robot"
Actual: "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "A Complete Unknown", "Emilia Pérez", "Wicked", "The Wild Robot"
Score: Matches: "Dune: Part Two", "The Wild Robot" (2). Winner correct (3). 5/8


Visual Effects
Predicted: "Deadpool & Wolverine", "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes", "Mufasa: The Lion King", "Tuesday"
Actual: "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "Alien: Romulus", "Better Man", "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes", "Wicked"
Score: Matches: "Dune: Part Two", "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" (2). Winner correct (3). 5/8


Original Score
Predicted: "Flint Strong", "IF", "Kinds of Kindness" (winner), "The Wild Robot", "Young Woman and the Sea"
Actual: "The Brutalist" (winner), "Conclave", "Emilia Pérez", "Wicked", "The Wild Robot"
Score: Match: "The Wild Robot" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8


Original Song
Predicted: "Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F", "Blitz", "Mufasa: The Lion King", "Queer", "Six Triple Eight" (winner, "The Journey")
Actual: "El Mal" ("Emilia Pérez") (winner), "The Journey" ("The Six Triple Eight"), "Like a Bird" ("Sing Sing"), "Mi Camino" ("Emilia Pérez"), "Never Too Late" ("Elton John: Never Too Late")
Score: Match: "The Journey" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8


Documentary Feature
Predicted: "Daughters", "Piece by Piece", "Sugarcane", "Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story" (winner), "Will & Harper"
Actual: "No Other Land" (winner), "Black Box Diaries", "Porcelain War", "Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat", "Sugarcane"
Score: Match: "Sugarcane" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8


International Feature
Predicted: "Brief History of a Family" (China), "Emmanuelle" (France), "Crossing" (Georgia), "Pedro Páramo" (Mexico) (winner), "Reinas" (Spain)
Actual: "I’m Still Here" (Brazil) (winner), "The Girl with the Needle" (Denmark), "Emilia Pérez" (France), "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" (Germany), "Flow" (Latvia)
Score: No matches ("Emmanuelle" ≠ "Emilia Pérez"). 0/8


Total
Points: 3 + 0 + 2 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 5 + 5 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 0 = 31
Max Points: 13 (Best Picture) + 19 × 8 (others) = 165
Percentage: (31 / 165) × 100 ≈ 19%

Cool market idea! Purely on instinct I’ve gotta bet this down (the task seems nearly impossible), but as the year progresses a bit it’ll be fun to see if I start to find it more plausible. Getting even 30%+ would be an insanely impressive called shot

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