Amazingly, Variety has published a full list of Oscar predictions 12 months out! Absolutely insane!! How accurate will they be (resolves to percent)?

I am going to be weighting each correct guess as +3 points, and each correct nomination as +1. Each category has a total of 8 winnable points, but for Best Picture which has (up to 10 nominees and thus) 13 winnable points. So if they get the Best Actor right, and 3 of the nominees correct (including the winner), that would be 6/8 (75%) for the category. What % of the total points will Variety win?

*** denotes a picked winner

Best Picture:

• “Bird” (No U.S. Distribution) 
  Lee Groombridge, Juliette Howell, Tessa Ross 

• “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) ***
  Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer 

• “Conclave” (Focus Features)  
  Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross 

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) 
  Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve 

• “The End” (Neon) 
  Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen 

• “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 
  Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe, Kasia Malipan 

• “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) 
  Michael Bederman, Francis Ford Coppola 

• “The Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) 
  Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, David Levine 

• “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 
  Todd Black, Denzel Washington 

• “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) 
  Jeff Hermann

Director:

• Andrea Arnold — “Bird” (No U.S. Distribution) 

• Francis Ford Coppola — “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) 

• Steve McQueen — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) ***

• Joshua Oppenheimer — “The End” (Neon) 

• Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) 

Actor

• Daniel Craig — “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) 

• Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24) 

• Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features) ***

• Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24) 

• John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 

Actress

• Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 

• Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) 

• Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24) 

• Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (TBA) ***

• Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios) 

Supporting Actor

• Willem Dafoe — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 

• Harris Dickinson — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 

• Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) ***

• Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 

• Stanley Tucci — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 

Supporting Actress

• Joan Chen — “Dìdi” (Focus Features) 

• Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 

• Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “The Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) ***

• Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 

• Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 

Original Screenplay

• “Bird” (No U.S. Distribution) — Andrea Arnold 

• “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Steve McQueen ***

• “The End” (Neon) — Rasmus Heisterberg, Joshua Oppenheimer 

• “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) — Efthimis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos 

• “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg 

Adapted Screenplay

• “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Peter Straughan 

• “The Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) — RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes ***

• “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington 

• “Sing Sing” (A24) — Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John Divine G Whitfield 

• “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Chris Sanders 

Animated Feature

• “Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 

• “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” (Warner Bros.) 

• “The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol” (Sony Pictures Classics) 

• “Ultraman: Rising” (Netflix) 

• “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***

Production Design

• “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock ***

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos 

• “Gladiator 2” (Paramount Pictures) — Arthur Max, Elli Griff 

• “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) — Beth Mickle, Bradley Rubin, Lisa K. Sessions 

• “Nosferatu” (Focus Features) — Craig Lathrop 

Cinematography

• “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Yorick Le Saux 

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Greig Fraser ***

• “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) — Edward Lachmann 

• “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) –Mihai Malaimaire Jr. 

• “Parthenope” (No U.S. Distribution) — Daria D’Antonio 

Costume Design

• “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) — Colleen Atwood 

• “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Jacqueline Durran 

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Jacqueline West ***

• “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) — Milena Canonero 

• “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Francine Jamison-Tanchuck 

Film Editing

• “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Peter Sciberras ***

• “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Nick Emerson 

• “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) — Shane Reid 

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Joe Walker 

• “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Leslie Jones 

Makeup and Hairstyling

• “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***

• “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 

• “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 

• “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)  

Sound

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***

• “The End” (Neon) 

• “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 

• “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution)  

• “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Visual Effects

• “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) 

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***

• “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios) 

• “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) 

• “Tuesday” (A24) 

Original Score

• “Flint Strong” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Tamar-kali 

• “IF” (Paramount Pictures) — Michael Giacchino 

• “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) — Thomas Newman ***

• “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Kris Bowers 

• “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Amelia Warner

Original Song

• “Possible song” from “Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F” (Netflix) 

• “Possible song” from “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 

• “Possible song” from “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) 

• “Possible song” from “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) 

• “Possible song” from “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) ***

Documentary Feature

• “Daughters” (Netflix) — dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae 

• “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) — dir. Morgan Neville 

• “Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) — dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie 

• “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”  (Warner Bros.) — Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui ***

• “Will & Harper” (Netflix) — dir. Josh Greenbaum 

International Feature

• “Brief History of a Family” (China) — dir. Jianjie Lin 

• “Emmanuelle” (France) — dir. Audrey Diwan 

• “Crossing” (Georgia) — dir. Levan Akin 

• “Pedro Páramo” (Mexico) — dir. Rodrigo Prieto ***

• “Reinas” (Spain) — dir. Klaudia Reynicke-Candeloro