Amazingly, Variety has published a full list of Oscar predictions 12 months out! Absolutely insane!! How accurate will they be (resolves to percent)?
I am going to be weighting each correct guess as +3 points, and each correct nomination as +1. Each category has a total of 8 winnable points, but for Best Picture which has (up to 10 nominees and thus) 13 winnable points. So if they get the Best Actor right, and 3 of the nominees correct (including the winner), that would be 6/8 (75%) for the category. What % of the total points will Variety win?
*** denotes a picked winner
Best Picture:
“Bird” (No U.S. Distribution)
Lee Groombridge, Juliette Howell, Tessa Ross“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) ***
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve“The End” (Neon)
Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen“Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe, Kasia Malipan“Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution)
Michael Bederman, Francis Ford Coppola“The Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion)
Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, David Levine“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Jeff Hermann
Director:
Andrea Arnold — “Bird” (No U.S. Distribution)
Francis Ford Coppola — “Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution)
Steve McQueen — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) ***
Joshua Oppenheimer — “The End” (Neon)
Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Actor
Daniel Craig — “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution)
Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24)
John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Actress
Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24)
Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (TBA) ***
Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
Harris Dickinson — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) ***
Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
Stanley Tucci — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Supporting Actress
Joan Chen — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “The Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) ***
Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Original Screenplay
“Bird” (No U.S. Distribution) — Andrea Arnold
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Steve McQueen ***
“The End” (Neon) — Rasmus Heisterberg, Joshua Oppenheimer
“Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) — Efthimis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg
Adapted Screenplay
“Conclave” (Focus Features) — Peter Straughan
“The Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) — RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes ***
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington
“Sing Sing” (A24) — Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John Divine G Whitfield
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Chris Sanders
Animated Feature
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” (Warner Bros.)
“The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Ultraman: Rising” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Production Design
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Gladiator 2” (Paramount Pictures) — Arthur Max, Elli Griff
“Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) — Beth Mickle, Bradley Rubin, Lisa K. Sessions
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features) — Craig Lathrop
Cinematography
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Yorick Le Saux
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Greig Fraser ***
“Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) — Edward Lachmann
“Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) –Mihai Malaimaire Jr.
“Parthenope” (No U.S. Distribution) — Daria D’Antonio
Costume Design
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) — Colleen Atwood
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Jacqueline Durran
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Jacqueline West ***
“Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution) — Milena Canonero
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Francine Jamison-Tanchuck
Film Editing
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Peter Sciberras ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features) — Nick Emerson
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) — Shane Reid
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Joe Walker
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Leslie Jones
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
“Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Sound
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“The End” (Neon)
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
“Megalopolis” (No U.S. Distribution)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Visual Effects
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Tuesday” (A24)
Original Score
“Flint Strong” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Tamar-kali
“IF” (Paramount Pictures) — Michael Giacchino
“Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) — Thomas Newman ***
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Kris Bowers
“Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Amelia Warner
Original Song
“Possible song” from “Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F” (Netflix)
“Possible song” from “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“Possible song” from “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Possible song” from “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution)
“Possible song” from “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) ***
Documentary Feature
“Daughters” (Netflix) — dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae
“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) — dir. Morgan Neville
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) — dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.) — Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui ***
“Will & Harper” (Netflix) — dir. Josh Greenbaum
International Feature
“Brief History of a Family” (China) — dir. Jianjie Lin
“Emmanuelle” (France) — dir. Audrey Diwan
“Crossing” (Georgia) — dir. Levan Akin
“Pedro Páramo” (Mexico) — dir. Rodrigo Prieto ***
“Reinas” (Spain) — dir. Klaudia Reynicke-Candeloro
1,000@traders if anyone wants to write out the calculations to resolve this they can take whatever liquidity is there + I will send them 100M for the trouble! Otherwise I’ll have to calculate this myself lol
@Ziddletwix Grok says 19%
Best Picture
Predicted: "Bird", "Blitz" (winner), "Conclave", "Dune: Part Two", "The End", "Kinds of Kindness", "Megalopolis", "The Nickel Boys", "The Piano Lesson", "The Wild Robot"
Actual: "Anora" (winner), "The Brutalist", "A Complete Unknown", "Conclave", "Dune: Part Two", "Emilia Pérez", "I’m Still Here", "Nickel Boys", "The Substance", "Wicked"
Score: Matches: "Conclave", "Dune: Part Two", "Nickel Boys" (3). Winner wrong (0). 3/13
Director
Predicted: Arnold ("Bird"), Coppola ("Megalopolis"), McQueen ("Blitz") (winner), Oppenheimer ("The End"), Villeneuve ("Dune: Part Two")
Actual: Baker ("Anora") (winner), Corbet ("The Brutalist"), Mangold ("A Complete Unknown"), Audiard ("Emilia Pérez"), Fargeat ("The Substance")
Score: No matches. 0/8
Actor
Predicted: Craig ("Queer"), Domingo ("Sing Sing"), Fiennes ("Conclave") (winner), Garfield ("We Live in Time"), Washington ("The Piano Lesson")
Actual: Brody ("The Brutalist") (winner), Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown"), Domingo ("Sing Sing"), Fiennes ("Conclave"), Stan ("The Apprentice")
Score: Matches: "Domingo", "Fiennes" (2). Winner wrong (0). 2/8
Actress
Predicted: Gaga ("Joker: Folie à Deux"), Jean-Baptiste ("Hard Truths"), Pugh ("We Live in Time"), Ronan ("The Outrun") (winner), Zendaya ("Challengers")
Actual: Madison ("Anora") (winner), Erivo ("Wicked"), Gascón ("Emilia Pérez"), Moore ("The Substance"), Torres ("I’m Still Here")
Score: No matches. 0/8
Supporting Actor
Predicted: Dafoe ("Kinds of Kindness"), Dickinson ("Blitz"), Jackson ("The Piano Lesson") (winner), Plemons ("Kinds of Kindness"), Tucci ("Conclave")
Actual: Culkin ("A Real Pain") (winner), Borisov ("Anora"), Norton ("A Complete Unknown"), Pearce ("The Brutalist"), Strong ("The Apprentice")
Score: No matches. 0/8
Supporting Actress
Predicted: Chen ("Dìdi"), Deadwyler ("The Piano Lesson"), Ellis-Taylor ("The Nickel Boys") (winner), Ronan ("Blitz"), Rossellini ("Conclave")
Actual: Saldaña ("Emilia Pérez") (winner), Barbaro ("A Complete Unknown"), Grande ("Wicked"), Jones ("The Brutalist"), Rossellini ("Conclave")
Score: Match: "Rossellini" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8
Original Screenplay
Predicted: "Bird", "Blitz" (winner), "The End", "Kinds of Kindness", "A Real Pain"
Actual: "Anora" (winner), "The Brutalist", "A Real Pain", "September 5", "The Substance"
Score: Match: "A Real Pain" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8
Adapted Screenplay
Predicted: "Conclave", "The Nickel Boys" (winner), "The Piano Lesson", "Sing Sing", "The Wild Robot"
Actual: "Conclave" (winner), "A Complete Unknown", "Emilia Pérez", "Nickel Boys", "Sing Sing"
Score: Matches: "Conclave", "Nickel Boys", "Sing Sing" (3). Winner wrong (0). 3/8
Animated Feature
Predicted: "Inside Out 2", "The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim", "The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol", "Ultraman: Rising", "The Wild Robot" (winner)
Actual: "Flow" (winner), "Inside Out 2", "Memoir of a Snail", "Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl", "The Wild Robot"
Score: Matches: "Inside Out 2", "The Wild Robot" (2). Winner wrong (0). 2/8
Production Design
Predicted: "Blitz" (winner), "Dune: Part Two", "Gladiator 2", "Megalopolis", "Nosferatu"
Actual: "Wicked" (winner), "The Brutalist", "Conclave", "Dune: Part Two", "Nosferatu"
Score: Matches: "Dune: Part Two", "Nosferatu" (2). Winner wrong (0). 2/8
Cinematography
Predicted: "Blitz", "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "Maria", "Megalopolis", "Parthenope"
Actual: Crawley ("The Brutalist") (winner), Fraser ("Dune: Part Two"), Guilhaume ("Emilia Pérez"), Lachman ("Maria"), Blaschke ("Nosferatu")
Score: Matches: "Dune: Part Two", "Maria" (2). Winner wrong (0). 2/8
Costume Design
Predicted: "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice", "Blitz", "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "Megalopolis", "The Piano Lesson"
Actual: "Wicked" (winner), "A Complete Unknown", "Conclave", "Gladiator II", "Nosferatu"
Score: No matches. 0/8
Film Editing
Predicted: "Blitz" (winner), "Conclave", "Deadpool & Wolverine", "Dune: Part Two", "The Piano Lesson"
Actual: "Anora" (winner), "The Brutalist", "Conclave", "Emilia Pérez", "Wicked"
Score: Match: "Conclave" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8
Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted: "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice", "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "Joker: Folie à Deux", "Kinds of Kindness", "Nosferatu"
Actual: "The Substance" (winner), "A Different Man", "Emilia Pérez", "Nosferatu", "Wicked"
Score: Match: "Nosferatu" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8
Sound
Predicted: "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "The End", "Joker: Folie à Deux", "Megalopolis", "The Wild Robot"
Actual: "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "A Complete Unknown", "Emilia Pérez", "Wicked", "The Wild Robot"
Score: Matches: "Dune: Part Two", "The Wild Robot" (2). Winner correct (3). 5/8
Visual Effects
Predicted: "Deadpool & Wolverine", "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes", "Mufasa: The Lion King", "Tuesday"
Actual: "Dune: Part Two" (winner), "Alien: Romulus", "Better Man", "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes", "Wicked"
Score: Matches: "Dune: Part Two", "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" (2). Winner correct (3). 5/8
Original Score
Predicted: "Flint Strong", "IF", "Kinds of Kindness" (winner), "The Wild Robot", "Young Woman and the Sea"
Actual: "The Brutalist" (winner), "Conclave", "Emilia Pérez", "Wicked", "The Wild Robot"
Score: Match: "The Wild Robot" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8
Original Song
Predicted: "Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F", "Blitz", "Mufasa: The Lion King", "Queer", "Six Triple Eight" (winner, "The Journey")
Actual: "El Mal" ("Emilia Pérez") (winner), "The Journey" ("The Six Triple Eight"), "Like a Bird" ("Sing Sing"), "Mi Camino" ("Emilia Pérez"), "Never Too Late" ("Elton John: Never Too Late")
Score: Match: "The Journey" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8
Documentary Feature
Predicted: "Daughters", "Piece by Piece", "Sugarcane", "Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story" (winner), "Will & Harper"
Actual: "No Other Land" (winner), "Black Box Diaries", "Porcelain War", "Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat", "Sugarcane"
Score: Match: "Sugarcane" (1). Winner wrong (0). 1/8
International Feature
Predicted: "Brief History of a Family" (China), "Emmanuelle" (France), "Crossing" (Georgia), "Pedro Páramo" (Mexico) (winner), "Reinas" (Spain)
Actual: "I’m Still Here" (Brazil) (winner), "The Girl with the Needle" (Denmark), "Emilia Pérez" (France), "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" (Germany), "Flow" (Latvia)
Score: No matches ("Emmanuelle" ≠ "Emilia Pérez"). 0/8
Total
Points: 3 + 0 + 2 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 5 + 5 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 0 = 31
Max Points: 13 (Best Picture) + 19 × 8 (others) = 165
Percentage: (31 / 165) × 100 ≈ 19%