Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028 | Manifold

Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028

Plus

13

Ṁ352

2028

79%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

48% chance. IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

If above market resolves between January 1st and March 31th of 2028, this market resolves YES, otherwise in resolves NO.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Scott Alexander

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/grading-my-2018-predictions-for-2023

Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023

"All otherwise undated predictions are about 1/1/2028."

I'm interested to hear a compelling argument for why the other nine months of 2028 are not in 2028.

Related questions

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

50 Put EOY 2024 on "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?" (2x)

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Derivatives markets: Will Scott Alexander's "2028 AI movie market" be above 50% on Jan 1 in each year?

Will some U.S. actors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

-5% 1d49% chance

Movement in "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?" by EOY 2024. (500M subsidy)

Will there be realistic AI generated short films by the end of 2024?

Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?

Related questions

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Derivatives markets: Will Scott Alexander's "2028 AI movie market" be above 50% on Jan 1 in each year?

Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?

Will some U.S. actors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

Movement in "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?" by EOY 2024. (500M subsidy)

50 Put EOY 2024 on "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?" (2x)

Will there be realistic AI generated short films by the end of 2024?

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules