Derivatives markets: Will Scott Alexander's "2028 AI movie market" be above 50% on Jan 1 in each year?
12
1kṀ23k2029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
30%
2026
30%
2027
40%
2028
40%
2029
Each of the below markets resolves on Jan 1 12:00AM EST for each of the labeled years. They resolve based on whether the below linked market is above 50% at that time (Jan 1 of each year).
This market is an attempt to create derivatives markets. The markets should approxamitely follow the probability of the linked market until near their closing date at which they will become increasingly volatile.
The displayed value of the market will be used. If the market is displaying exactly 50% then the corresponding market for that year also resolves to 50%. less than or equal 49% resolves NO. greater than or equal 51% resolves YES
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
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