If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?
➕
Plus
14
Ṁ633
2028
79%
Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 3 movies are publicly available
76%
At least 100 AI-generated original movies, more than 2 hours long, are publicly available and watched by 100k people each
68%
A studio quality 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover exists
65%
Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 100 movies are publicly available
47%
A 120 minute Star Trek/Star Wars crossover exists and has Imdb score >=6
34%
AI generated remakes of at least 100 cinematic movies are publicly available and watched by at least 100k people each
34%
Netflix stock price lower than $50 or higher than $5,000
28%
Singularity

Options are evaluated 3 months after the following market resolves YES:

All options resolve N/A if the main market resolves to something other than YES.

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bought Ṁ5 Netflix stock price ... YES

What about "Studio quality, AI-generated original movies are publicly available" and variations? I'm guessing one giant hurdle to "AI-generate remakes" is going to be IP related, not is-this-technically-possible related.

@inaimathi Added an option along those lines

I realise that the phrase "studio quality" is doing much of the work here same as in the original market. My definition of this is that it is something that someone used to movies made in 2020 could watch without perceiving it as inferior in either audiovisual quality (in the way movies made in 2000 look extremely outdated) or in the atmosphere (like AI generated movies currently, they creep everyone out).

@lukres That's a horrible definition and has the same issues as the definitions used by the parent market. In both cases, you're still left the with the task of subjectively comparing the severity of issues from diffusion models against issues using traditional 3d modeling techniques. Looking 8 years back and comparing The Justice League (2016) to 1 minute clips produced by Sora in the last few months, which has better quality? Sora looks a hell of a lot more impressive to my eyes but maybe not to yours.

@becauseyoudo You are right that it's still too subjective. Here's an attempt to make a more objective one:

AI generated remakes of at least 100 movies are publicly available and watched by at least 100k people each

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