Market Description:
The Tesla Optimus Robot is a humanoid robot announced by Tesla Inc., and its production cost is a topic of interest. The market options are divided into four categories based on the price range in USD: less than $25,000, $25,000 to $40,000, $40,000 to $100,000, and more than $100,000.
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve when Tesla Inc. officially announces the retail price of the Tesla Optimus Robot. The price will be considered in USD. If the price falls within one of the four predefined ranges, the corresponding option will be deemed correct. If Tesla Inc. does not announce the price or the robot does not go into production, the market may not resolve. The source of resolution will be an official announcement or a credible news report confirming the retail price. The market will not consider discounts, subsidies, or region-specific pricing variations. The price considered will be the base price before any optional extras or customizations.
1,000Tesla has talked about aiming for a cost of production of $20,000 but aiming for and achieving might be different things. But ignoring the possibility they don't achieve that, they are also clear that the AI for Optimus will be much more complex than for driving.
If they achieve $20,000 marginal production cost then they would have to charge at least, probably well over, $30,000 in order to make a profit selling it without any AI. Without the AI it is useless. The AI for it will be difficult and expensive to develop if not a never ending task and if they think they can charge $15000 for FSD they are certainly going to want to charge over $10,000 for the Optimus AI which will be much more difficult and expensive to develop.
So I cannot see a retail price of under $40k being possible but YMMV.