
๐Will there be a successful orbital launch of a new rocket (=not Vega) by a european provider by the end of 2024? ๐ฐ
5
แน100แน55resolved Nov 8
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
๐ Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน19 | |
| 2 | แน10 |
Sort by:
@Yourchique, what is required for the flight to be considered successful? (Eg. does Ariane 6's maiden flight count?)
@Nat I would argue it was successful in being orbital... in fact more orbital than desired... ;)
Resolving this to yes.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?
98% chance
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?
98% chance
Will Astra's Rocket 4 Launch in 2026?
10% chance
Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027?
98% chance
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026?
Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?
13% chance
Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)
51% chance
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2030?
14% chance
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032?
19% chance