Will the US experience a power grid failure before 2026?
Standard
10
Ṁ881
2026
35%
chance

Any area of the US experiences a

power grid failure before 2026 resolves to YES

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Ṁ1,000
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This market is just too vague to be tradeable as is. @Yoae can you give some indications of how you would resolve this?

  • What counts as "5% of the total population"?

    • 5% of the population being affected at a particular instant?

    • what about a single hour?

    • a single day?

    • a single windstorm event?

    • a single wildfire season?

  • What does "affecting" mean?

    • "I ded"?

    • "My house has no power"?

    • "My job has no power"?

    • "My Google has no power"?

    • "My stonks went down"?

    • "Nanny state tells me not to use my air conditioner"?

    • "I heard about it on the news"?

  • What counts as a "power grid failure event"?

    • Unplanned blackout?

    • What if this isn't caused by the grid but by generators e.g. power plants simultaneously break?

    • Rolling blackouts?

    • Brownout - low voltage/frequency?

    • Advice not to use power?

    • Non-power delivery grid failure e.g. major wildfire evacuations?

    • Power grid goes bankrupt?

    • Electricity prices go up?

Do you wash your hands a lot?

filled a Ṁ250 NO at 30% order

Nothing ever happens