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Any area of the US experiences a
power grid failure before 2026 resolves to YES
This market is just too vague to be tradeable as is. @Yoae can you give some indications of how you would resolve this?
What counts as "5% of the total population"?
5% of the population being affected at a particular instant?
what about a single hour?
a single day?
a single windstorm event?
a single wildfire season?
What does "affecting" mean?
"I ded"?
"My house has no power"?
"My job has no power"?
"My Google has no power"?
"My stonks went down"?
"Nanny state tells me not to use my air conditioner"?
"I heard about it on the news"?
What counts as a "power grid failure event"?
Unplanned blackout?
What if this isn't caused by the grid but by generators e.g. power plants simultaneously break?
Rolling blackouts?
Brownout - low voltage/frequency?
Advice not to use power?
Non-power delivery grid failure e.g. major wildfire evacuations?
Power grid goes bankrupt?
Electricity prices go up?