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MANIFOLD
Will a power outage leave atleast 10 million US households without power before 2028?
4
Ṁ1kṀ309
2027
37%
chance

Resolves YES if over 10 million households have lost power at the same time for over 30 minutes before 2028. Households without power will be judged on data from poweroutage.us. Also resolves YES if there is reporting from the government or credible media sources that atleast 30 million americans had simultaneously lost power in an outage for over 30 minutes.

For comparison, the most recent time this would have resolved YES would have been the 2003 Northeast Blackout (~45 million americans affected, which is like 15-20 million households). The highest number from the past 10 years was due to Hurricane Irma, peaking at ~7.6 million households without power.

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