Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?
Politics•US Politics
13
58
Ṁ180
2050
85%
chance
This question resolves to YES if at least one of the following conditions occurs before January 1st, 2050: 1. A current state or states secedes from the US, or otherwise leaves or is removed from being under the authority of the US federal government. 2. A single party maintains a majority in both houses of congress, a majority on the supreme court, and the presidency for at least 12 consecutive years. 3. Any of the following constitutional amendments are effectively overturned or fully negated: 1st, 4th-10th, 13th-15th, 17th, 19th, 24th, 26th. 4. Any of the following laws are effectively overturned or fully negated: the Social Security Act (and amendments), Civil Rights Act of 1965, Elementary and Secondary Education Act, Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, or the National Labor Relations Act of 1935. 5. The structure of the US federal government is officially altered such that it is no longer composed of a bicameral legislative branch, a presidential executive branch and a supreme court. 6. The US constitution is officially removed or replaced. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO. Jun 24, 4:19pm: This question will not resolve to YES if any of the listed laws are overturned but immedietly replaced by a stronger, similar law. Close date updated to 2049-12-31 11:59 pm
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The US government has been in decline (in effectiveness) for over 50 years. As to whether a “structural” change happens: extraordinarily unlikely. All the power has been in the administrative state for decades (with a completely useless legislative branch that exists only to handout favors, and a completely powerless executive branch that exists only to stir up foreign coups and wars). The single-party-for-12-years has some chance of happening, but everything else here is just unnecessary to change to move power around within the system. (Court packing would be the most obvious signs of structural breakage but is not listed. Arguably sanctuary cities and state-level drug legalization are already abrogations of the federal system, but weren’t counted either.)
Would the removal of the Senate, on its own, really be a decline? It seems to me that removing such an antidemocratic institution would be progress, if anything
predicts YES
@LivInTheLookingGlass While I agree with you in theory, I think that any probable chain of events leading to the removal of the senate has to pass through a serious decline. Right now, neither major political party is motivated to get rid of the senate.
What if a listed law if overturned but immediately replaced by a stronger, similar law?

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