Will any resolve-to-quiescence-with-high-probability markets fail catastrophically by EO2023
9
170Ṁ458resolved Jan 22
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if, by the end of 2023, any market which resolves to quiescence with high probability (but not 1) has failed catastrophically. I don't know how to define it rigorously, but here are some examples of resolve-to-MKT and whether I consider them to have failed:
/MartinRandall/is-the-sky-blue-resolves-to-mkt -- not fail
/dreev/biden-quiescence -- fail
Previous resolve-to-quiescence-with-high-probability markets:
/Yev/will-biden-be-president-on-october-fb3d01633429 -- not fail
/Yev/20x-amplified-odds-will-a-nuclear-w -- not fail (even if a nuclear weapon is detonated, 7% is close enough to what other markets were predicting)
EDIT: If I learn that some resolve-to-quiescence-whp market failed before this market's creation, it resolves N/A.
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