Will any resolve-to-quiescence-with-high-probability markets fail catastrophically by EO2023

Predictions on Predictions•Resolution Pending•New Year's Resolutions 2024

144

Ṁ458

Ṁ170

resolved Jan 22

Resolved

N/A

ALL

Resolves YES if, by the end of 2023, any market which resolves to quiescence with high probability (but not 1) has failed catastrophically. I don't know how to define it rigorously, but here are some examples of resolve-to-MKT and whether I consider them to have failed:

/MartinRandall/is-the-sky-blue-resolves-to-mkt -- not fail
/jack/will-biden-be-president-on-915-reso -- fail
/dreev/biden-quiescence -- fail
/zzq/will-biden-still-be-president-at-th -- fail

Previous resolve-to-quiescence-with-high-probability markets:

/Yev/will-biden-be-president-on-october-fb3d01633429 -- not fail
/Yev/20x-amplified-odds-will-a-nuclear-w -- not fail (even if a nuclear weapon is detonated, 7% is close enough to what other markets were predicting)

EDIT: If I learn that some resolve-to-quiescence-whp market failed before this market's creation, it resolves N/A.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030?

56% chance

Will any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?

70% chance

Will this market resolve?

95% chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

49% chance

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

40% chance

Will I be around to resolve this market in December 2037?

Sort by:

⚠Unreceptive to pings ; AFK Creator

📢Resolved to N/A : Abandoned Market ; No Proof Presented By Creator Or Predictors.

@Jenny
Can you resolve, please?

@traders Have anything?

If I understand correctly, you don't consider https://manifold.markets/dreev/biden-quiescence to be resolve-to-quiescence? If so, can you explain why?

predicted YES

To clarify, you're asking about future markets? Because it looks to me like some of the existing ones have already failed.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing I'm not aware of any such markets. Link?

predicted YES

@Yev Oh I misread one of the markets in the description, but still, this one kinda seems like a failure.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing yes, that's why I'm asking about high probability (but not 1)

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@Yev You can't get a higher probability than 1!

Will any resolve-to-quiescence-with-high-probability markets fail catastrophically by EO2023, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition