[EXPERIMENTAL][20x AMPLIFIED ODDS] Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively in the first month after market quiescence?
7
20
Ṁ538Ṁ150
resolved Dec 21
Resolved as
7%1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market closes when it reaches quiescence (72 hours with probability moving by at most 1%). This market resolves 30 days later.
If during that month a nuclear weapon was detonated offensively (using the criteria from /jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6843759174bb), this market resolves YES.
Otherwise it resolves MKT with probability 95% and NO with probability 5%.
[Since this market is experimental, I reserve the right to resolve it N/A if this market mechanism is not working]
Close date updated to 2022-11-19 10:15 pm
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ8 | |
2 | Ṁ7 | |
3 | Ṁ7 | |
4 | Ṁ3 | |
5 | Ṁ0 |
Sort by:
Related questions
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)
31% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
22% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
21% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
16% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
14% chance
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
12% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before July 1st 2024?
6% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat in 2024?
1% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated during 2024?
20% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
27% chance