This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030
Mini
9
222
2030
49%
chance

If the following python prints "True" when I run it in early 2030 (hopefully January 1st, but it might take a few days more to arrange a time in case I'm traveling), this market will resolve as YES. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO. I will not bet on this market and am willing to run the script publicly in order to prove that it is done fairly. This is being done as a demonstration of an idea I wrote about in a post about iterative prediction markets. Here is the code:

import random 

print(random.random() <= 0.49)
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