Background

Fordow is a deeply buried Iranian nuclear facility located roughly 80–90 meters inside a mountain near Qom, making it resistant to standard airstrikes. Only the U.S. operates the 30,000‑lb GBU‑57 "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" (MOP), which can be delivered by B‑2 stealth bombers—platforms Israel does not possess. U.S. officials have consistently declined to transfer the MOP or B‑2s to allies, although there is public debate over a potential lend‑lease-like arrangement to allow Israel access. Analysts note that Israel could attempt a risky multi-bomb conventional strategy, rely on cyberattacks, commando raids, or lighter bunker-busters it already holds. However, If U.S. equipment like B‑2s or MOPs are used, operations must clearly be undertaken by Israeli forces to ensure proper attribution.

Resolution Criteria

“Yes” resolves if, by January 1, 2026 any one of the following is publicly confirmed and clearly attributable to Israel:

1. Commando raid: Open‑source imagery or credible reporting confirms Israeli special‑forces or drones infiltrated Fordow, causing material damage.

2. Cyberattack: Public evidence shows a cyber‑operation significantly disabled centrifuge operations or control systems tied to Fordow.

3. Conventional strike: Satellite imagery or credible military intel confirms an Israeli airstrike—using light or bunker-buster bombs—has materially damaged Fordow’s underground structures.

4. Infrastructure sabotage: Operatives destroyed or disabled power, tunnels, entrances, or other support systems critical to Fordow’s function.

5. U.S.-supplied systems used by Israel: If Israel employs U.S. hardware (e.g., B‑2/MOP), evidence must show Israeli pilots/operators and chain-of-command execution—ruling out purely covert U.S. operations.

6. Other methods – includes any undisclosed tactics or hybrid operations (e.g., smuggled drones, intelligence-led sabotage) that are confirmed and credited to Israel—even if not listed above.

Evidence must include credible attribution: tracked flight logs, authoritative OSINT clearly linking Israel to the action, or another reliable method.

The answer resolves “No” if none of these are confirmed—including cases where the U.S. alone acts or attribution remains ambiguous.