Did the Russians (YES), or the Ukrainians (NO) deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Otherwise N/A)
Basic
31
Ṁ2268
resolved Jan 16
Resolved
N/A

To be resolved by the consensus of American sources. I may choose to resolve to Market if there is some ambiguity and the market price seems basically reasonable and not manipulated or an artifact of poor liquidity, but if not, or if it seems pretty clear cut to me, then I'll resolve to my own best judgement of the consensus of trustworthy American sources, including both government sources and news media.

I will probably continue to delay the closing of this market until some consensus emerges and either way will probably wait several months at the minimum unless the evidence is especially clear cut.

I will presumptively treat evidence of being the cause of the dam failure as evidence of deliberate intent to make it fail.

See also:

/YaakovSaxon/did-the-russians-deliberately-blow

/YaakovSaxon/did-the-russians-intend-to-destroy

/YaakovSaxon/will-the-icc-or-similar-tribunal-fi

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⚠Unreceptive to pings ; AFK Creator

📢Resolved to N/A ; No proof posted for either side.

@YaakovSaxon Can you please resolve? Thank you.

@traders Got proof of Yes or No?

If you want to bet on whether the Russians intended to completely destroy the dam, as opposed to whether it might have been a lesser sabotage operation gone wrong, see the following market.

If you believe it was the Russians but by mismanagement rather than deliberate sabotage, you can’t make money on this market (because this one would resolve N/A in that case) so go to the following market instead.

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