Will the ICC or similar tribunal find Russians guilty of war crimes re the Nova Kakhovka dam failure?

Question

For this question to resolve YES, these Russians would need to have been acting under orders (or with tacit approval from superiors) of some official or quasi official army, militia, or other government agency of Russia, as opposed to an unauthorized independent act of terrorism or corruption by Russian Nationals. However I will presumptively assume that they were acting under orders unless there is clear evidence or statement by the tribunal to the contrary.

I will plan to resolve this by 2030 at the latest if there is no movement on such a case. But I will probably extend the resolution if there is a case in progress.

See also these markets:
@/YaakovSaxon/did-the-russians-yes-or-the-ukraini 
@/YaakovSaxon/did-the-russians-deliberately-blow 
@/YaakovSaxon/did-the-russians-intend-to-destroy

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 38% chance (17 traders, as of Jan 1, 2026).