Will Russia deliberately destroy the Zaporizha nuclear power plant.
Basic
31
4.4k
2026
10%
chance

Resolves either when the plant is destroyed, the war ends, or at market close if neither happen first.

In case the plant is destroyed but it's ambiguous whether it was deliberate Russian action, will resolve to my best judgement (so I'll avoid betting on this one).

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

@ShakedKoplewitz "destroyed" is pretty broad. If it could be repaired, would it count? If repairs would take months? Years?

@Primer fair point. Let's say "seems like it'll be out of commission for >5-10 years and require extensive repairs at least"

predicts YES

@ShakedKoplewitz I think that is an overshot. So if it is completely not functional, but is repaired in a year it is not a "destruction for the market purposes"?

@KongoLandwalker I think any dysfunctionality big enough to count as "destroyed" wouldn't be repairable in a year (I should add "of normal effort"). I don't want to resolve as yes if all they do is hit an off switch and the next Ukrainian patrol to come by just hits the on switch again.

predicts YES

@ShakedKoplewitz Thanks for the answer.

Russia moves its troops from the plant

predicts YES

If Putin had such plan, he might speed it up to hinder Ukraine while he solves the Prigozhin potential coup.

predicts YES

What if the cooling pool is destroyed, causing a necessity of immediate shutdown?

That would be a small explosion withing a facility, so I expect yes?