Who blew up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline?
➕
Plus
128
Ṁ19k
2028
80%
Ukraine 🇺🇦
59%
Poland
47%
Vladimir Zhuravlev
42%
USA 🇺🇸
32%
Non-State Actors 🏴‍☠️
16%
Norway 🇳🇴
14%
NATO 🧭
13%
Poland and Ukraine
13%
UK 🇬🇧
7%
France 🇫🇷
6%
China 🇨🇳
5%
Germany 🇩🇪
4%
Russia 🇷🇺

Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sabotage

Multiple answers will be chosen if more than one actor is involved. “Involved” means has knowledge of the event and contributed to the sabotage prior to its happening.

Resolves when there is a clear actor beyond a reasonable doubt.

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Ṁ1,000
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bought Ṁ100 Vladimir Zhuravlev YES
  1. German authorities issue a European arrest warrant for Zhuravlev

  2. Poland doesn't execute the warrant; instead warns Zhuravlev

  3. He flees to Ukraine

  4. Donald Tusk says something on Twitter about how Nord Stream was a bad idea from the start

I think this is pretty clear?

bought Ṁ100 Russia 🇷🇺 YES

@tmk Russia avoided a lot of very large fines that would have begun very soon after the explosions. So many had motive! Russia, Ukraine, US, Poland, Belarus, Turkey etc etc

Currently all the evidence points to Zhuravlev, even if the us was involved it would never come to light before market resolution. So I don’t understand the current prices here.

@Philip3773733

According to leaked documents posted online, the U.S. had information that Ukraine was planning to attack the Baltic Sea gas links three months before the explosions, the Washington Post reported last year.

(from the Politico article in the oldest comment)

@Primer so? This again points to Ukraine as the culprit. Not the USA.

currently it is unclear whether it was „Ukraine“ as in Selensky approved it or if it was just a private endeavor by some private citizens of Ukraine. That is the reason why I didn’t buy Ukraine YES

@Philip3773733 From the description:

“Involved” means has knowledge of the event and contributed to the sabotage prior to its happening.

Which I had interpreted as meaning either had knowledge, or contributed. But I'm not sure if that's what was intended.

Can you clarify, @wglane ?

@Primer they had knowledge of a plot to do it on a different date and tried to stop them. But not about this particular operation.

reposted

In the news again.

Poland and Ukraine

@MateuszSkrzypek why would you add this answer when both Poland and Ukraine are represented and multiple answers can resolve "yes"?

You can vote "No" if you like, easy win for you, right?

Poland and Ukraine

@MateuszSkrzypek "Multiple answers will be chosen if more than one actor is involved"

Poland and Ukraine are already there

bought Ṁ50 USA 🇺🇸 NO

Yet the probability that they BOTH are involved cannot be deduced from their personal probabilities, so this option is reasonable. (It could only be deduced by multiplication if it was a known fact, that both options are independent.)

bought Ṁ50 Poland and Ukraine NO
Vladimir Zhuravlev
bought Ṁ50 Vladimir Zhuravlev YES
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