Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Question

This market is specifically asking whether the Russians deliberately blew up / sabotaged the dam vs whether it was merely negligence on their part.

One caveat to the above: the question is ultimately about intention. If it becomes known with confidence that the Russians deliberately neglected to maintain the dam with intention that it should fail, then I would resolve YES. But the presumption would be against this if it failed through lack of maintenance rather than active sabotage.

To be resolved by the consensus of American sources. I may choose to resolve to Market if there is some ambiguity and the market price seems basically reasonable and not manipulated or an artifact of poor liquidity, but if not, or if it seems pretty clear cut to me, then I'll resolve to my own best judgement of the consensus of trustworthy American sources, including both government sources and news media.

I will probably continue to delay the closing of this market until some consensus emerges and either way will probably wait several months at the minimum unless the evidence is especially clear cut.

See also

@/YaakovSaxon/did-the-russians-yes-or-the-ukraini

@/YaakovSaxon/did-the-russians-intend-to-destroy

@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-icc-or-similar-tribunal-fi

Update: if it was anything else (eg Ukraine destroyed the dam) this market would also resolve NO, but see my other market if you think that is the case.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 64% chance (121 traders, as of Feb 11, 2026).