This market is specifically asking whether the Russians deliberately blew up the dam completely vs whether they intended a lesser sabotage.
An allegedly intercepted phone call released by Ukraine suggested that the Russians intended to sabotage the dam but not to completely destroy it. That is what I am trying to get at with this new market.
Note that this market resolves NO in any of the following scenarios:
If anybody else other than the Russians blew it up
If it was mismanagement rather than intentional sabotage
If it was intentional sabotage, but it was intended to be a significantly lesser amount of damage than actually occurred
To be resolved by the consensus of American sources. I may choose to resolve to Market if there is some ambiguity and the market price seems basically reasonable and not manipulated or an artifact of poor liquidity, but if not, or if it seems pretty clear cut to me, then I'll resolve to my own best judgement of the consensus of trustworthy American sources, including both government sources and news media.
I will probably continue to delay the closing of this market until some consensus emerges and either way will probably wait several months at the minimum unless the evidence is especially clear cut.
See also
/YaakovSaxon/did-the-russians-yes-or-the-ukraini