Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, the official 7-day moving average of ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait falls strictly below 15. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. The source is the 7-day moving average line on this page: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c. On Sunday Aug. 16, 2026, the value was 29.
Background
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Historically, the strait accommodated 60 to 80 vessel transits per day. However, persistent geopolitical conflicts, drone and missile attacks starting in late 2023, and a July 2026 naval blockade targeting regional shipping have severely suppressed traffic.
Many shipping companies have redirected vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. By August 2026, the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls through the strait hovered around 25. This market tracks whether further escalations, blockades, or safety risks will suppress the 7-day moving average of daily transits below 15 at any point in 2026.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
1,000