The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 59% chance (5 traders, as of Jul 9, 2026).

Will 120 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day before 2030?

🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

15% chance

Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?

8% chance

Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?

1% chance

🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

14% chance

Will Strait of Hormuz daily transits reach 40+ vessels on any day before September 20, 2026?

9% chance

Will 110 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day while Trump is President?

61% chance

Will IMF PortWatch show a Strait of Hormuz 7-day transit average of 15 or more on any date through Oct 15, 2026?

31% chance

Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?

17% chance

Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?

24% chance

Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?

38% chance