Will 120 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day before 2030?

Question

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 51% chance (2 traders, as of Jul 8, 2026).

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