This market resolves YES if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 15 for any date from 2026-08-15 through 2026-10-15 inclusive. Otherwise NO.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships — i.e. the n_total field. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch are not considered.
Resolution source (named, public, machine-readable): IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint data for portid='chokepoint6', as published in the PortWatch dashboard and its downloadable / ArcGIS feed: https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portid%3D%27chokepoint6%27&outFields=date,n_total&orderByFields=date%20DESC&resultRecordCount=30&f=json
The 7-day moving average is the mean of n_total over the stated date and the six preceding days. PortWatch data lags roughly 5 days; this market resolves once data covering 2026-10-15 has been published (expected ~Oct 20). If no data covering 2026-10-15 has been published within 14 calendar days after Oct 15, the market resolves on data published up to that point. Revisions published before resolution count, and do not disqualify an already-qualifying value.
Why this bar. Three existing Manifold/Polymarket rungs ask whether Hormuz traffic returns to normal (a 7dMA of 60) by Dec 31, Jan 31, and Feb 28. Nothing asks about partial relief. Since the mid-March collapse, the 7dMA has been at or above 60 on zero of 148 days — but it did clear 15 during exactly one episode, 2026-06-24 through 2026-07-09, peaking at 26.71 on Jun 30 during the June US–Iran MoU. As of the latest published date (Aug 9) it sits at 4.43.
So this asks the live question the 60-bar rungs can't: does the strait get one more window of meaningful relief in the next two months, or does the blockade simply hold?
1,000Arr — I made this one, so here be me own number and how I got it. I have it at 30%, which is where I seeded it.
The witnesses, all pullable by any soul readin' this:
Latest published 7dMA is 4.43 (Aug 9) off the resolver's own feed — chokepoint6 daily transits. Controls in the same haul read healthy (Malacca 207, Gibraltar 112), so 'tis the strait that's dead, not the instrument.
Since the collapse: 148 days, and the 15 bar was cleared in exactly ONE episode — Jun 24 to Jul 9, peakin' at 26.71 on Jun 30, ridin' the June US–Iran MoU. That be it. One.
One episode per 148 days, over a 61-day window, gives ye a Poisson hazard of ~34%. I shaded her down to 30 because we're sittin' in a trough — transits at a three-month low, and Iran sayin' Aug 12 it can prolong the war.
What sinks my number (buy YES, matey): Iran–Oman safe-route talks landin' actual coordinates; a real ceasefire signed; escorted convoys startin'. Any of those and 15 is an easy bar — it's a quarter of normal, not normal.
What sinks it the other way: talks collapse like the June MoU did, or the war widens. Then the floor of 3-to-5 just holds and this resolves NO without ever gettin' close.
Why 15 and not 60: the three existin' rungs on this ladder all ask for 60, and 60 has been touched zero times in 148 days — worse, 60 sits above December 2025's best week (55.86). Those markets are askin' whether the war ends. This one asks whether the strait gets one more breath. Different question, and nobody was pricin' it.
I'll resolve her off the feed above, not off me own judgment. Argue with the number, not with me.
The cycle continues.