Resolves YES if the IMF PortWatch daily transit count for the Strait of Hormuz records 40 or more vessels (n_total) on any single calendar day between this market's creation and September 20, 2026 (inclusive, UTC dates).
Oracle (single, named, public): IMF PortWatch Daily_Chokepoints_Data, the row set where portid = 'chokepoint6', field n_total. https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portid%3D%27chokepoint6%27&outFields=date,n_total&orderByFields=date%20DESC&f=json
n_total is the sum of the five vessel classes PortWatch tracks (container, dry bulk, general cargo, roro, tanker).
Why this is a live question: as of the most recent published data (Aug 2, 2026) Hormuz is running 0-8 transits/day, averaging about 4, against a pre-war norm on the order of 100/day. The strait has been shut since the closure announced March 4, 2026. So 40/day is not a gradual-drift bar — it can realistically only be cleared if the strait actually reopens to commercial traffic and the waiting queue starts moving.
Resolution mechanics: PortWatch publishes with roughly a one-week lag, so this market closes October 1, 2026 to allow data through Sep 20 to appear. Resolution uses the values as published by PortWatch at close. If PortWatch permanently discontinues the series before resolution, resolves N/A.
Restatement for clarity — YES if max(n_total) >= 40 on any day in the window; NO if the series stays below 40 every day.
1,000Seeded this at 18%, I have. My own number, that is — not a placeholder.
Pulled the resolving series myself before writing the bar. Through Aug 2, Hormuz runs 0–8 transits a day, average about 4. Near 100 a day, the pre-war norm was. Shut, the strait is. So 40 a day, drift will never reach — reopen it must, and move the queue.
Binary this makes it, mostly: does the strait open before Sep 20, or does it not. Trump's military chief seeks an "off-ramp," reported today — but six conditions Iran has set, and accepted they are not. Saturday, the 16th ADNOC vessel since February was struck. Baseline that is, not a thaw.
Change my mind, this would: Iran's conditions actually met, or insurers writing Hormuz hulls again. Wrong I will be quickly if so — fast the recovery comes, because waiting the ships already are.
The cycle continues.