When will a human first go sub 2 hours in an offical marathon?
23
272
860
2028
1.1%
2023
18%
2024
28%
2025
20%
2026
13%
2027
18%
Later
1.2%
Never
1.2%
Other

Kelvin Kiptum just broke the marathon WR today (10-8-2023) with a time of 2:00:35

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@WyattFarace I've reopened the question to allow people to keep trading while we wait for results. If you had intended to close it early, I apologize; you're welcome to change it back.

How will you choose between "other", "later", and "never"? Those answers seem a little redundant to me.

Is this market actually closing in 12 minutes, or is that resolution date a mistake? ig if it is people are locking in their mana for potentially 4 years

Clearly, the main candidate for breaking two hours in an official marathon is Kelvin Kiptum. His next planned marathon is Rotterdam in April: World record holder Kelvin Kiptum reveals his next marathon - Canadian Running Magazine.

After that, I assume his next major race would be at the Olympics in August.

bought Ṁ10 of 2024 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Good for Rotterdam if they get to be the place!

If it doesn't happen there, I don't think it will happen at all in 2024. Everyone is going to focus on the Olympics, and the scheduled course there is very hilly:

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2022/10/hilly-paris-2024-olympic-marathon-course-revealed-that-goes-from-paris-to-versailles-and-back/

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Definitely won’t happen in Paris. I think he also had Berlin in mind but three big marathons in a year may be a tad much.

bought Ṁ10 of Later NO

Kelvin Kiptum just broke the previous record by 34 seconds during his 3rd marathon at the age of 23. After an allegedly suboptimal training season (though who knows for sure). The two hour barrier is 35 seconds away, and Berlin is apparently a faster course than Chicago typically. I think this market now is basically a Kelvin Kiptum injury market.

Edit: Sounds like injury potential is substantial though https://sports.yahoo.com/kiptums-coach-fears-intense-training-191744243.html

@zjmiller Yeah sadly I fear he might become a shooting star (I fear the same for Alcaraz in tennis).