[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?
7
5.1kṀ168Dec 31
61%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if, during 2026, METR estimates that an AI model has a time horizon of ≥3 hours at 80% reliability, i.e. the AI has an estimated ≥80% reliability on tasks requiring human experts ≥3 hours to solve.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
65% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
1% chance
Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon that is an 1 hour and 30 minutes by September 2026?
80% chance
AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?
77% chance
AI time horizon of 10 hours by September 1st 2026?
70% chance
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?
32% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
37% chance
Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
87% chance