AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?
2
100Ṁ512026
31%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on the highest value on this graph on January 1, 2027:
https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks
50% Success
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
AI solves Millenium Prize Problem in 2025?
1% chance
Model with METR time horizon ≥8 hours released in 2026?
68% chance
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
AI time horizon of 10 hours by September 1st 2026?
30% chance
AI bubble pops before January 2026?
5% chance
Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon that is an 1 hour and 30 minutes by September 2026?
50% chance
AI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?
36% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
33% chance
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
41% chance
AI: Will someone train a $10T model by 2100?
59% chance