Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?
3
1kṀ450
Dec 31
32%
chance

Resolves according to this leaderboard: https://artificialanalysis.ai/?omniscience=omniscience-hallucination-rate. The metric we are looking it as percentage of non-correct answers that are hallucinations.

To count, the model must be somewhere close to frontier, defined by being a release by a major lab that is larger than 7b parameters and competitive for its size class. No tool use allowed.

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