Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on Hezbollah's primary military response to the killing of Haytham Ali Tabatabai by December 31, 2025. Resolution will be determined by:

• Official Hezbollah statements via their Telegram accounts and media channels

• Documented military actions including attacks on IDF positions in Lebanon, firing on northern Israeli communities, infiltration attempts, missile strikes on Israeli territory, or terror operations against Israeli targets abroad

• Public declarations regarding ceasefire status or response strategy from senior Hezbollah officials

The market resolves to whichever answer best characterizes Hezbollah's primary response within the specified timeframe. If multiple responses occur, the most significant initial response takes precedence.

Background

Tabatabai ranked second in Hezbollah's chain of command, second only to Secretary General Naim Qassem. He was a veteran operative who commanded the elite Radwan forces and directed Hezbollah's operations in Syria, and by the end of 2024 had effectively been performing the duties of directing combat actions against Israel after the elimination of most of the group's leaders.

The ceasefire agreement mandates a 60-day halt to hostilities, during which Israel must withdraw its forces from Southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah must withdraw its forces to north of the Litani River. Tabatabai is the most senior Hezbollah commander to be killed by Israel since the start of the November 2024 ceasefire. Senior Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati said Israel's strike crossed a "red line" and that the group's leadership was considering whether it would respond, stating "The strike on the southern suburbs today opens the door to an escalation of assaults all over Lebanon."

Considerations

Having lost thousands of operatives and received $1 billion from Iran for reconstruction in the past year, Hezbollah has relied on strategic patience to rebuild while facing domestic pressure to disarm. The assassination of the organization's de facto chief of staff intensifies the internal debate within Hezbollah and could force a change in its policy of strategic restraint. Hezbollah's support base is clamoring for revenge but if Hezbollah responds directly, Israel will strike back very hard and no one in Lebanon will thank Hezbollah for that. Israeli intelligence officials believe that Hezbollah may retaliate with attacks on Jewish, Israeli or Israeli-linked targets in foreign countries, rather than directly attacking Israel.

• Update 2025-11-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple response types occur, the market will resolve evenly split between all applicable answers (rather than resolving to only the most significant initial response as originally stated).

Note: The creator intended this to be a Set market (allowing multiple resolutions) rather than a Multiple Choice market (single resolution).