Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 1, 2025, a continuous 7-day period sees 100 or more combined military and civilian fatalities directly resulting from hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah or their aligned forces. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The casualty count will be determined based on reports from reputable international organizations such as the United Nations (e.g., UN Human Rights Office, UNIFIL), major international news agencies (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters), or official government sources from Israel or Lebanon that are corroborated by independent reporting. Priority will be given to sources that provide detailed, dated casualty breakdowns. The "week" refers to any rolling 7-day period.

Background

An ongoing conflict between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israel commenced on October 8, 2023. A ceasefire agreement, brokered by the United States and France, officially took effect on November 27, 2024, aiming to halt hostilities. The agreement included provisions for Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon and for Hezbollah to move its fighters north of the Litani River.

Despite this agreement, the ceasefire has been described as fragile, with reports of continued violations by both sides. As of October 2025, there have been ongoing Israeli airstrikes and Lebanese officials urging compliance with the truce. The UN Human Rights Office verified 108 civilian casualties in Lebanon between the ceasefire's start and October 17, 2025.

Considerations

Traders should be aware that obtaining precise and universally agreed-upon casualty figures in an active or recently active conflict zone can be challenging due to differing reporting methodologies and political sensitivities. While major international bodies and news agencies strive for accuracy, minor discrepancies between sources are possible. The market explicitly accounts for combined military and civilian fatalities.