Inspired by this.
Resolves yes if Israel returns Lebanon/Hezbollah to a state in which they are primarily using stone age technology before 2028.
Definition for stone age technology - Technology that people would have commonly had during the 8000 and 2000 BC period.
Phones, electronics, up-to-date farming equipment and many modern metals and their alloys are not stone age tech.
You can go here to learn more about the stone age: https://www.history.com/topics/pre-history/stone-age
Resolves no if Israel doesn't achieve this by 2028.
If Lebanon/Hezbollah are returned to the stone age by mother nature or another nation this resolves No. Only Israeli action that causes the returning of Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age will resolve this yes. Other nations can help but it must be clearly Israeli led.
With support from around the world and money being redirected from Ukraine to provide Israel with the firepower it needs. Will they be men of their words and return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age? Or was this yet another lie from the Israeli Government?
1,000People are also trading
@Adam Am I missing something? Looks like people doing pottery with modern equipment. I see what you tried to do tho. Edited the description to try and prevent any other funny business.
This is also a question about if Israel will cause this. They can go back to stone age by choice and that won't effect the resolution of this market.
Looking for more ad-friendly Israel war markets like this to feature in ads! Send me a message if you’ve seen more like it (ideally those which resolve sooner)
Ideal requirements:
no death tolls
no explicit mention of killing/war (not required, but preferable
no mention of government officials
A decent amount of traders (signals that people feel strongly enough to bet)
@BTE Yeah.. They can be serious, but no "bad terms" lol. Not saying this is a perfect candidate, but the less explicit wording is what I was trying to draw attention to
@DanMan314 I assume you meant a poll like this then a market like this? You have any more ideas on markets I could do? This is one of my few original ideas I didn't copy from someone else. Thought it was a decent question. Never thought it should be an ad. I asked it because of this. Maybe I wasn't being original actually... I just made what Israel said into a question
@Testiecool Sort of! I think this market is totally fine by the way, just that it wouldn't make a good ad (or at least wouldn't serve the goal of "advertising Israel/Hamas markets that aren't controversial").
I wonder if there's a market somewhere along the lines of "if run as an ad, will it have X consequences" but operationalizing X could be tricky.
@DanMan314 The goal isn't really to "advertise Israel/Hamas markets that aren't controversial", it's to advertise Israel/Hamas markets that people feel strongly about, and don't break ad guidelines.
Controversy is fine, Manifold is at its best when people are being shown they are out of touch, or when they can express a strong feeling or use specific knowledge. That way if they're wrong, they can check their bias and the quality of their sources - or if they're right, they can gloat!
This is also why I want to advertise to and bring more extreme Trump supporters to the platform. Either they will have to measure their language a bit and engage with reality, or regularly be proven wrong. The current onsite republicans are exceedingly reasonable relative to some of the right-wing pundit claims, which makes me wonder - are all people reasonable when they really stop to think? If anyone is locked in an echo chamber, they can really engage with reality by having a track record of bad calls.
@Gen I meant controversial in the sense of drama about Manifold as a platform/the ethics of predictions markets, not controversial in the sense of disagreement over the question posed by the market. Thanks for the clarification though! And i agree that’s a worthy goal.