28% chance. The launches must be successful in that they place their payload into the intended orbit or landing zone for interplanetary bodies, unless the failure mode was directly attributable to the payload's performance itself. I think we have to fit the same criteria to the 1st launch that we do to the 500th. I'm considering the first IFT "Not Successful", in that it didn't insert Starship into a near-orbital trajectory. Even though personally I think it was a successful data gathering flight. The guiding principle for success is something like "Did this flight prove to customers their payload will go where they want it to go?". The launch will be considered successful if the payload is placed correctly, but the Starship or Superheavy Booster or both are intended to be recovered but are lost instead. Essentially, will SpaceX make 500 launches that a customer would consider proves satisfactory reliability and safety of the system by Jan 1st 2030. [image]