If a NATO country is attacked, will article 5 be respected?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A
Bound it the time frame to end of 2023. Article 5 specifies that the allies will come to the defence of the attacked country. Will they really defend the attacked country? Thinking in particular to ex-Soviet countries (eg. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). Feb 25, 10:55am: Cyberattacks are not included because not recognized as "war attacks" so far. Feb 25, 5:44pm: Good point made by @hamnox. If there no attack on a NATO country during this timeframe, the market will resolve to N/A. Opened another market to bet on the probability of an attack happening: https://manifold.markets/ValentinManes/will-a-nato-country-be-attacked
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"Article 5 specifies that the allies will come to the defence of the attacked country."

No it doesn't: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm.

"Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and [...] will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area." (Emphasis mine.)

bought Ṁ5 of NO

What if only some NATO countries come to the defence?

predicted NO

@MathieuPutz This counts as article 5 being respected.

predicted NO

@ahalekelly that's precisely for this case that the question was asked.

https://manifold.markets/ValentinManes/will-a-nato-country-be-attacked
👆 This other question relates with the attack directly.

Ok, in my mind there's two separate questions here, "Will NATO invoke article 5 if attacked" and "Will article 5 be respected if invoked". It's your question though.

But I do feel like it could benefit from an explicit definition of "attacked"

Oh I see in that other question you clarified that a missile would count but only if it was intentional. That clears up most of the edge cases.

What if a NATO country is attacked but doesn't invoke article 5? eg the missile hitting Poland.

bought Ṁ1 of NO
@Yev Jens Stoltenberg doesn't have so much power in the end. NATO would like to make Russia believe that it has a risk on doing so many obvious cyberattacks. In practice, this isn't the case yet. Nations have not come clause to recognizing those attacks as war acts.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1497309173498875907 "NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says that cyberattacks could trigger Article 5 of the organization's charter, the so-called "commitment clause" that considers an attack on any NATO ally an attack on all."
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Is this resolving to N/A if Russia does not attack a NATO country?