My list of MAGA Republicans currently running for President is as follows:
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
Vivek Ramaswamy
If a MAGA Republican is not elected US President in 2024 (e.g. Biden / Haley / Christie / RFK Jr.), this resolves N/A. If a MAGA candidate is elected president and dies the next day, this market will continue with their successor (their VP is assumed to be sufficiently MAGA-y).
The attack must be coming from Russian-aligned forces (Belarus counts, as would Wagner military forces, and/or whomever else they’re aligned with in 2025), and the attack must be on NATO soil (so blowing up a NATO member’s embassy in Belarus wouldn’t count).
“NATO” includes all current members and any new members who join before the end of 2025. If a country leaves NATO and is later attacked, this resolves YES, as is also true if NATO no longer exists when the attack occurs.
Lastly, Article 5 does not need to be triggered for this to resolve. After a Russia (aligned) attack on NATO soil, this will immediately resolve YES.
@ClubmasterTransparent this is a really interesting point that I didn’t clarify in the description. If the US pulls out of NATO (imo NATO dissolves and), I think this would be like 10x as likely, as there’s no guaranteed protection for the tiny NATO states.
@traders, as trading has already begun, it’s only fair that you all get to opine on this potential change. Are you all ok with me adding/clarifying, “NATO includes all current members and any new members who join before the end of 2025?”
@mattyb updated. Please don’t hesitate to comment here, or DM me if this fundamentally changes the bet you made, and I can buy you out.