My list of MAGA Republicans currently running for President is as follows:

• Donald Trump

• Ron DeSantis

• Vivek Ramaswamy

If a MAGA Republican is not elected US President in 2024 (e.g. Biden / Haley / Christie / RFK Jr.), this resolves N/A. If a MAGA candidate is elected president and dies the next day, this market will continue with their successor (their VP is assumed to be sufficiently MAGA-y).

The attack must be coming from Russian-aligned forces (Belarus counts, as would Wagner military forces, and/or whomever else they’re aligned with in 2025), and the attack must be on NATO soil (so blowing up a NATO member’s embassy in Belarus wouldn’t count).

“NATO” includes all current members and any new members who join before the end of 2025. If a country leaves NATO and is later attacked, this resolves YES, as is also true if NATO no longer exists when the attack occurs.

Lastly, Article 5 does not need to be triggered for this to resolve. After a Russia (aligned) attack on NATO soil, this will immediately resolve YES.