If Trump wins, will at least 20 NATO members reach the 2% target for defense spending in 2025? | Manifold

If Trump wins, will at least 20 NATO members reach the 2% target for defense spending in 2025?

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Paired conditional market here: If Biden wins, will at least 20 NATO members reach the 2% target for defense spending in 2025? | Manifold

Currently, 11/30 NATO members spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense: Which Countries Meet NATO’s 2% Spending Target? (visualcapitalist.com ).

Trump has threatened not to defend allies who do not meet the 2% target: Trump says he'd 'encourage' Russia 'to do whatever the hell they want' if a NATO country didn't spend enough on defense - ABC News (go.com ).

More information about the 2% target and past spending stats are available from NATO here: NATO - Topic: Defence expenditures and NATO’s 2% guideline.

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Which of NATO members will have met the target of 2% of GDP defence spending in any year before 2030?

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