Submission for Make Biden/Trump conditional markets for up to 5000 Mana, and get featured on the Manifold Politics Page! | Manifold.
Paired conditional market here: If Biden wins, will at least 20 NATO members reach the 2% target for defense spending in 2025? | Manifold
Currently, 11/30 NATO members spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense: Which Countries Meet NATO’s 2% Spending Target? (visualcapitalist.com).
Trump has threatened not to defend allies who do not meet the 2% target: Trump says he'd 'encourage' Russia 'to do whatever the hell they want' if a NATO country didn't spend enough on defense - ABC News (go.com).
More information about the 2% target and past spending stats are available from NATO here: NATO - Topic: Defence expenditures and NATO’s 2% guideline.
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The latest source that ChatGPT can find says that all of the countries in NATO were on track for meeting the 2% target:
Most European countries are planning to spend more on defense, though they may not meet the target this year: https://fortune.com/europe/2025/03/13/spain-nato-defense-spender-hit-target-trump-eu-pressure-pedro-sanchez/
NATO secretary General Mark Rutte said 23 allies are spending 2 percent of GDP on defence in november 2024