Will the all-German 49-euro ticket manage to get traction?
17
125
350
resolved Jun 6
Resolved
YES

Resolved as a NO, if either:

  • there's a quote in the media before the end of 2023 from a German government official, or a public transport corp spokesperson/executive, saying that "49-eur ticket" didn't manage to get traction, or "not a lot of people are using it"

  • in the absence of such quote, there's any reliable information that it managed to get less than or "around" 1 million subscribers (for comparison, 9-eur ticket was sold 52 mln times over the summer. Unfortunately I couldn't easily find public data about Abo usage, but I will do a more serious search later). If it's a specific number, "around" means "< 1.2 mln", but I expect the quote to just say e.g. "around a mil"

Other resolution criteria are welcome. If "one million" seems too small or too big for a meaningful question, please LMK. I prefer the "quote" criteria but it might be too specific.

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predicted YES

I think this resolves YES already:
https://www.vdv.de/presse.aspx?id=1936862a-232b-46d6-aba6-1ae4c61f6048&mode=detail&coriander=V3_f7969a21-cdd0-b411-4ddc-aecf511768ed
> Nach dem ersten Monat: rund 10 Mio. Deutschland-Tickets

When does it resolve YES?

predicted NO

@howtodowtle either the moment we hear about it getting more than 1.2 mln subscribers, or early 2024 it'd be resolved on the basis of the best available info

bought Ṁ10 of NO

According to BVG-Geschaeftsbericht-2019.pdf, there were ~842k monthly abonement users in Berlin. Maybe 1 million is too strong...