Germany's new party "WerteUnion" ...
28
420
1.7K
Sep 30
89%
will be on the ballot for the election in Saxony in Sept 1.
87%
will be on the ballot for the election in Thuringia in Sept 1.
86%
will be on the ballot for the election in Brandenburg in Sept 22.
82%
will have at least one sitting AfD politician who switched to Werteunion
79%
will gain at least one sitting state/federal MP from another party in 2024
29%
will win any seats in any state legislature in 2024
29%
has 4000+ members until September
10%
will get 5% or more of the votes in all three states
6%
will be on the ballot for the EU election in June
Resolved
YES
formally exists before April
Resolved
YES
will officially be called "WerteUnion" once it exists.

Maaßen, former President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, to develop the conservative association WerteUnion into a party. It should to take part in this year's state elections. It would be the second party to be founded within a few weeks. -Tagesschau via Deepl

This is a collection of predictions about that until end of September.

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Information: It is highly unlikely for the WU to reach 4000 party members until September.

Reason (from their statute, in german): "

(4) Während des Antragsverfahrens, das grundsätzlich 15 Monate ab Antragstellung dauert, ist der Antragsteller berechtigt, als „Bewerber im Antragsverfahren“ über das Parteileben, öffentliche Aktivitäten und Veranstaltungen der Partei parteiüblich informiert zu werden. An Veranstaltungen der Partei kann er als Gast teilnehmen. Weitergehende Rechte, wie z.B. das aktive und passive Wahlrecht, sind mit diesem Status nicht verbunden. (5) Über den Aufnahmeantrag soll im 15. Monat des Antragsverfahrens entschieden und das Ergebnis dem Bewerber schriftlich mitgeteilt werden. Wird dem Antrag stattgegeben, so wird der Bewerber mit Zugang der Mitteilung über seine Aufnahme Mitglied der WerteUnion. Ergeht bis zum Ende des Antragsverfahrens keine Entscheidung, gilt die Aufnahme als abgelehnt."

TLDR: The Admission procedure takes normally 15 months and at the moment they have only the 55 founding members.

The statut seems to be removed from their website 🤔 but I have it downloaded.

@PhantomLordMXVI Seriously? This is weird. They need more people for the elections this fall.

@marktwse Probably as protection against extremists I would guess.

Maybe they will update it to allow for exceptions before the elections but I don't know 🤔

bought Ṁ25 formally exists befo... YES

@PhantomLordMXVI Looks quite credible but I'm not sure if they got all the formalities right yet: https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/parteien/parteigruendung.html

It seems they still have to elect a board?

@marktwse Hmm valid point, I am not knowledgeable enough to really assess that 🤔

@marktwse But they will definitely handle that till April so I dont regret buying

@marktwse https://partei-werteunion.de/parteivorstand/

Hmm, at least on their party page they list a board

@PhantomLordMXVI https://partei-werteunion.de/2024/02/18/1/

And here they explicitly claim that they elected a board

@PhantomLordMXVI Thanks! Good enough for me now, so I resolve two markets.

will have at least one sitting AfD politician who switched to Werteunion

Most parties don't show dual membership, do they?

@PS I should expect them to leave the AfD before joining the Werteunion

bought Ṁ10 of will have at least o... NO

@LudwigBald So it would be a sitting AfD politician switching to Werteunion?

@PS exactly. I'm editing it right now to use that language!

bought Ṁ20 of has 4000+ members un... NO

By the way - what happens if a Werteunion-based party is founded under a different name?

@PS Still counts. The title uses quotation marks and the description quote says “develop into a party”. So i don’t think anybody understood that differently.

will gain at least one sitting state/federal MP from another party in 2024

@PS since Maaßen himself is MP, that seems equivalent with its existence?

@marktwse I thought he lost the federal election and didn't participate in any others?..

bought Ṁ50 of will gain at least o... YES

@PS You are right. I was looking at outdated information.

@marktwse Next question is “sitting when?” Sabine Baum is equally likely. She is involved in the recent scandal, so she might be kicked out of CDU before WerteUnion exists. That should probably not count.

bought Ṁ20 of will gain at least o... NO

@marktwse I assumed that would cover any active MP who joins the Werteunion, but you are right, my description does say "from another party". In any case, it's your call.

@marktwse PS. Who is Sabine Baum? If you mean Simone Baum who is said to have participated in the infamous Potsdam meeting, I'm not sure she's an MP...

sold Ṁ26 of will gain at least o... YES

@PS She is not. Searching for a while but found no member who is currently MP.

State legislators switching parties wouldn’t count as “winning seats”, right?

@AmadeoBordiga "win seats" refers to the elections only, I think.

@AmadeoBordiga I added another option for MPs switching to Werteunion