Will 6 or more Tory MPs resign from their seats before 2026?
Will 6 or more Tory MPs resign from their seats before 2026?
2
1kṀ205Dec 31
41%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I wont be betting. Members that have been elected as a Conservative MP and later have their whip removed and thus resign as independents will also be counted.
Resignation for any reason will be considered to contribute towards resolution.
Inspired by these articles:
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/url-tory-mps-resign-next-general-election-lhjlhpjzx
https://leftfootforward.org/2024/10/up-to-a-dozen-tory-mps-consider-quitting-over-labours-second-job-crackdown/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will a party leader resign from position as leader and their seat as a result of the 2025 Australian Federal Election?
Will any current member of Congress leave their party before 2026.
8% chance
Will three additional House Republicans resign in 2024?
9% chance
Will David Cameron re-enter the House of Commons as an MP before 2026?
5% chance
How many Reform councillors will have left the Party by the May 2026 elections.
The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026
5% chance
Which Conservative MP will lose their seat next?
How many House Republicans will resign early before the 2024 election? (Nov. 5)