I wont be betting. Members that have been elected as a Conservative MP and later have their whip removed and thus resign as independents will also be counted.

Resignation for any reason will be considered to contribute towards resolution.

Inspired by these articles:

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/url-tory-mps-resign-next-general-election-lhjlhpjzx

https://leftfootforward.org/2024/10/up-to-a-dozen-tory-mps-consider-quitting-over-labours-second-job-crackdown/