During the course of a parliament there are frequently several by-elections. Where will they be?
Any constituency that holds a by-election to elect a new Member of Parliament will resolve YES on the day polling opens. All outstanding answers will resolve NO on the day parliament is dissolved for the next General Election.
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Clive Lewis has said he would be willing to stand down as MP for Norwich South to make way for Andy Burnham, so that he could challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
@Noit absolutely the maddest UKpol thing I’ve seen since Labour came to power. Probably the most important by-election on this list, if it happens.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I don’t think it can work like that. To contest the leadership, a sitting MP has to convince 20% of sitting MPs to approve their leadership bid. If Burnham becomes MP and runs for leader then that 20% have to all back one candidate. I’m not convinced that 40% of Labour MPs are ready to back two candidates and trigger a three-way contest, bearing in mind that Starmer still can run for his current job.
Related: https://manifold.markets/Noit/which-labour-mps-will-mount-a-leade?r=Tm9pdA
@Noit Oh, I thought only the initial challenger needed the 20 % that is that threshold needed to be met for a leadership challenge to happen at all.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen skimming the rules, it seems subsequent challengers would also need 20% of the PLP to nominate, but it’s not clear if any given MP can nominate more than one person at a time. So the number of mutinous MPs needs to be somewhere between 20% and 40%.
@Noit it's not a safe enough seat to try that there, it could too easily flip to the Greens. Also I've heard the Central Committee have the power block Burnham from standing by floating in their preferred candidate anyway.
Burnley and Gorton and Denton added, this was a minor scandal back in February where both MPs were making rude comments in a WhatsApp group. I hadn't realised both were suspended from the Labour party and have cases currently going through the Standard Commissions for bringing the house into disrepute.
South Basildon and East Thurrock added after James McMurdock loses the Reform whip for alleged COVID loan fraud.
Mid Norfolk added after George Freeman MP has referred himself to the standards commissioner over a "cash for questions" deal. He's just been kicked off the science, innovation and technology committee over it.
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich update: MP has plead not guilty, next visit to court is in a month.
Tory MP Patrick Spencer has been charged with sexual assault, so I’ve added Central Suffolk and North Ipswich to the list.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-patrick-spencer-charged-with-sexual-assaults-13367001
@traders Mike Amesbury has been sentenced to ten weeks in prison, meeting the criteria for a recall petition. Given that the threshold for the petition to succeed is ten thousand, and Reform were in second place with seven + thousand votes, it seems very likely this will be Starmer’s first by-election.