This morning David Lammy stated that starmer would stand in any leadership challenge if it happened. I think this puts the chances we see him remain PM until the votes are counted reasonably high. The market owner here has been completely clear that this would resolve to NO, so I think NO is still undervalued even after I've moved the market a little

Is a successful no-confidence vote or a leadership challenge a resignation for the purposes of this market?

@Tetraspace No as it is a forced abdication of power

@100Anonymous doesn’t that contradict “[Resignation] includes … resignation forced by party pressure” under your resolution criteria?

@lostmyhippo A successful no confidence vote kicks Starmer out, but if he resigns "willingly" before the no confidence vote actually kicks him out, that's him resigning.

@lostmyhippo by resignation forced by party pressure, I don't mean a no-confidence vote. I mean something like an informal protest of party members which causes him to resign.

@100Anonymous there's no such thing as a no confidence vote in the Labour party. You could poll Labour MPs on "do you have confidence in the leader" but the only way, under party rules, to remove the leader is through a successful leadership challenge. (Or voluntary resignation, which will undoubtedly have some kind of "party pressure" behind it but hard to operationalise.)

@Fion No confidence votes do exist in the parliament, but I see what you are saying. I am referring to internal party pressure, not a no-confidence vote in the parliament.

@100Anonymous yeah, but that's the whole of parliament voting, and if Labour lost it they'd likely call a general election

To be honest, I think the challenging choice you made was to say that forced resignation doesn't count. All prime ministers resign (unless they die), even if they lose a general election, there's still a point where they officially resign.

Your market and you can do what you like of course. I've sold my position. But I don't think "forced" is as clear a line as you initially thought.

Oh, by the way, if you have any losses you want me to refund, I am okay to do so.

@100Anonymous If Starmer initially says he will contest a leadership election but at some point withdraws before being eliminated is that a forced removal or a resignation for this market?

@ChristopherRandles yep, when he withdraws from the leadership election, he effectively resigns from the prime minister.

@100Anonymous Even if it is obvious that he is withdrawing because he isn't going to get the votes to avoid being eliminated? That seems very close to be forced out?

@ChristopherRandles I mean, it is, in some way, resigning because he can still contest it just for the sake of contesting it.