The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026 | Manifold

The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026

31

1kṀ4571

2027

5%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

More than 15 MPs must leave in some short burst to go somewhere else (as opposed to a large or small scandal). Or a generally agreed calamity.

UK Conservative Party

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Edit: thanks for updating. :)

I assume 15 MPs leaving gradually won't count? It needs to be part of some kind of splitting/collapsing event, rather than just people retiring and having individual scandals?

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