When will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level?
1.1k
2069
8%
Before 2025
11%
Before 2026
14%
Before 2027
16%
Before 2028
20%
Before 2029
54%
Before 2030
58%
Before 2031
59%
Before 2032
61%
Before 2033
57%
Before 2034
60%
Before 2035
63%
Before 2036
67%
Before 2037
68%
Before 2038
70%
Before 2039
73%
Before 2040
76%
Before 2041
76%
Before 2042
77%
Before 2043
78%
Before 2044

This is a cumulative probability market. For an answer to resolve YES, reports/publications/data from any sufficiently conventionally high-status source (e.g. the UN Population Division, the World Bank, the CIA World Factbook, the Population Reference Bureau) need to come out before the date of that answer claiming that the world's Total Fertility Rate is at or below 2.1 (replacement level can change depending on mortality rates, sex ratio, etc. but 2.1 is the figure for the purposes of this question).

Not that publications after an answer's date that make this claim are not eligible to count towards this question, even if they concern time periods before the date in question. The actual claim itself that humanity has fallen below replacement level needs to be made before the year in the answer in question.

I will use my discretion on what sources I will count, but expect it to be conservative. Feel free to ask about sources ahead of time.

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bought Ṁ3 Before 2028 YES

According to WorldBank it's 2.3 in 2021: https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

It's dropped a full 0.2 from 2017 to 2021. If it continues dropping at that rate it'll hit 2.1 by 2025 (which should be released at some point in 2028)

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