US Total Fertility Rate in 2030?
8
1kṀ1438
2031
11%
< 1.5
13%
1.5 - 1.55
21%
1.55 - 1.6
22%
1.6 - 1.65
18%
1.65 - 1.7
10%
1.7 - 1.75
5%
>= 1.75

Lower bounds inclusive, upper bounds exclusive. Per OWID.

  • Update 2025-11-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on data for the year 2030 (not whatever data is available in March 2030). The close date may be extended if OWID has not yet published 2030 data by the original close date.

  • Update 2025-11-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If OWID is not available to publish 2030 data, the market will resolve by attempting to replicate OWID's sources and methodology as closely as possible.

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Is this waiting for the OWID to update to include the year 2030? Or does it resolve to whatever OWID says for the US in March, 2030 (likely 2028 data)?

@DanielBets Data for the year 2030. We can extend the date if they haven't published yet.

@DanielBets If OWID isn't around to publish it, we'll attempt to replicate their sources / methodology as best we can.

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